NFL Football Stats Guru: NFL Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Player Projections http://www.footballstatsguru.com Free NFL Fantasy Football Picks, NFL Player Projections and NFL Player Rankings. Sat, 15 Nov 2008 21:50:41 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.6.2 en Beasts and Busts - Week 11 NFL Projections http://www.footballstatsguru.com/archives/2008/11/14/week-11-nfl-projections/ http://www.footballstatsguru.com/archives/2008/11/14/week-11-nfl-projections/#comments Sat, 15 Nov 2008 05:10:34 +0000 adminnadia http://www.footballstatsguru.com/?p=350 Our Week Ten NFL projections were impressively accurate, so let’s review our results before moving on to our Week Eleven NFL projections.

Quarterback Jay Cutler puts the Broncos in position for their game winning touchdown.

Denver Bronco's Quarterback Jay Cutler puts the Broncos in position for their game winning touchdown. (Photo courtesy of denverbroncos.com)

BRONCOS 34 @ BROWNS 30

For the second week in a row the Browns gave up a forth quarter lead and in doing so made Jay Cutler look like John Elway. We reserved judgment on QB Brady Quinn, but he went out and had a monster day. However, before you start measuring him for a yellow jacket, remember that he did it against the Broncos defense that you and I could pass against. It was still a very impressive debut, on a big stage and in front of a nation wide audience. Quinn showed great mobility, a strong arm and good decision-making. When the match up is right, Quinn will be a serviceable low end QB1 in the coming weeks. As suggested RB Jamal Lewis had a big game with 84 total yards and 1 TD.

Last week we suggested that TE Kellen Winslow was back and out to prove something. Hopefully you remembered that and started him as he had 10 catches for 111 yards and 2 TD. We suggested that you wait on starting Denver RB Ryan Torain and if you did, it’s too late now as he’s been lost for the season with a torn ACL. This is a tough break for Torain owners as he posted 68 yards and a TD in the first half. As predicted Culter and WR Brandon Marshall both bounced back in a big. Culter passed for 447 yards with 3 TD and 1 INT and Marshall had 89 yards and 1 TD.

Stats Sleeper

TE Tony Scheffler caught four passes for 92 yards.

SAINTS 20 @ FALCONS 34

We suggested fire works in this one and that was certainly the case as the Saints and Flacons combined for 54 points and 882 total yards. We suggested the Saints would get heavy doses of RB Michael Turner and they did as he had 27 carries for 96 yards and 1 TD. QB Matt Ryan had a big day and WR Roddy White bounced back after a quiet Week 9. It was the Falcons that built the lead in this one and forced the Saints away from their running game. RB Deuce McAllister had just five carries for 18 yards but he did catch two passes for 23 yards and 1 TD. As suggested it was bombs away for QB Drew Brees as he passed for a season high 422 yards and 2 TD but he also threw 3 INT. As predicted, Marques Colston returned to his marquee status as an elite NFL wide receiver with seven catches for 140 yards. Stats Sleeper, TE Billy Miller outplayed Fantasy Super Bust Jeremy Shockey again this week as he caught 5 passes for 65 yards

TITANS 21 @ BEARS 14

The Titans are still the leagues only undefeated team after they went into Soldier Field and battled to a hard fought, smash mouth football style victory. We told you points would be hard to come by and they were. The 35 that were scored were well earned points. The Bears stuffed the Titans running game (20 net yards) and they turned to QB Kerry Collins to not only manage but also win the game for them. Collins responded with 289 pass yards and 2 TD. We also recommended TE Bo Scaife and he was huge with 78 yards and a TD. WR Justin McCareins was held without a catch as WR Brandon Jones had eight catches for 82 yards. We didn’t expect much out of QB Rex Grossman and he was a pedestrian 173 with 1 TD and 1 INT. We suggested that you temper your expectations of RB Matt Forte. We are going to stop doing that as he reeled of 126 total yards and 1 TD. Forte has seen the “rookie wall” and ran right through it. TE Desmond Clark and WR Rashied Davis both had a very quiet week. Stats Sleeper, WR Justin Gage had four catches for 47 yards and 1 TD.

JAGUARS 38 @ LIONS 14

Things went from bad to worse for the hapless Lions as the Jaguars went into Detroit and pounded them. It seems impossible to go winless through 16 games but we honestly can’t see a spot that the Lions can actual win at the rest of the way. As suggested it was a monster game for RB Maurice Jone-Drew as he had 91 total yards and three touchdowns. All three of MoJo’s TD’s came in the second quarter and he was spelled, for the most part, by Fred Taylor in the second half. QB David Garrard had a decent 238 yard 2 TD day though WR Matt Jones was unusually quiet with just five catches for 68 yards. WR Jerry Porter, as suggested, kind of showed up for this one catching two passes for 33 yards and 1 TD. TE Marcedes Lewis had four catches for 64 yards. As predicted the Rudi Johnson experiment is over in Detroit and RB Kevin Smith has returned to his starting and featured back role. Smith was the most productive Lion in this one with 123 total yards and 1 TD. We told you to keep an eye on Stats Sleeper Jaguars WR Mike Walker and while he didn’t play this weekend, he should be back for Week Eleven.

RAVENS 41 @ TEXANS 13

The Ravens scored 41 points? Wow!! QB Joe Flacco, as suggested, had a solid day with 185 pass yards and two TD. Other than that we were off on the Ravens in this game. We said it’s a guessing game week in and week out as to who gets the most touches at RB for the Ravens. This weekend it was RB Willis McGahee who had 121 total yards and 2 TD. Ravens WR Derrick Mason played through a separated shoulder and had a modest three catch 41-yard game. TE Todd Heap went ballistic with 5 catches for 58 yards and 2 TD. If you saw that coming can you give me a call and suggest some lucky lotto numbers for me? The 17 (standard scoring system) points for Heap is more then his combined nine through his first eight games. As suggested QB Sage Rosenfel had a modest day and the Ravens doubled our suggested two INT’s with four? RB Steve Slaton had a predicted quiet day with just 24 total yards. WR Andre Johnson had seven catches for 66 yards and TE Owen Daniels was a bust with just one catch for 13 yards.

SEAHAWKS 19 @ DOLPHINS 21

If you followed or suggestion and put all your worldly possessions on the Dolphins, congratulations, you are now rich! It was easy for the Fins, as the Seahawks battled them to the end, but a win is a win. As suggested, the Seahawks posted modest to poor numbers across the board. QB Chad Pennington had another serviceable game here with 209 yards 1 TD and 1 INT. RB Ronnie Brown didn’t have a huge game but he did post 66 total yards and 1 TD. As suggested, WR Ted Ginn Jr. was the most productive receiver for the Dolphins with 67 yards and 1 TD. TE Anthony Fasano was a bust with just one catch for 17 yards. Stats Sleeper, RB Ricky Williams was huge with 126 total yards and 1 TD.

PACKERS 27 @ VIKINGS 28

Somehow we forgot to forecast any numbers for the Packers in this one, our apologies! As far as the Vikings go however, we were perfect. QB Gus Freotte had a modest day with 151 pass yards 2 TD and 1 INT. RB Adrian Peterson was huge and WR Bernard Berrian was the bust we predicted as he was held without a catch as the Vikings ran the ball 41 times. We said TE Visanthe Shiancoe was a low end TE2 in this one and he cooled off with just three catches for four yards.

BILLS 10 @ PATRIOTS 20

We suggested a low scoring affair here and it was with just 30 points scored in a game that was over before some of the other early games reached the forth quarter. We don’t understand why the Bills gave RB Marshawn Lynch just 14 touches in this one and he was a bust with just 46 total yards. QB Trent Edwards was pulled back on and didn’t even reach decent game status with just 120 yards with 1 TD and 2 INT. WR Lee Evans did not bounce back against the Patriots and now has back-to-back bust weeks. Patriots QB Matt Cassel had a modest 234 pass yards with no TD or INT. RB Benjarvus Green-Ellis was the better back over Kevin Faulk. WR Randy Moss had just 5 catches for 53 yards. For those of you who play in PPR leagues, WR Wes Welker had a nice game with 10 catches for 107 yards, As suggested, the TE spot in New England continues to be MIA.

RAMS 3 @ JETS 47

As forecasted the Rams were horrible in this one and was over early. Not a single Rams player produced more than five Fantasy points and three was the maximum if you don’t play in a PPR league. We cautioned that QB Brett Favre would have a modest day and while he avoided turnovers, he still had a pedestrian 167-pass yard 1 TD day. Jets RB Thomas Jones posted the stat line of the day with 140 total yards and three TD. TE Dustin Keller came out of nowhere and posted 107 receiving yards and 1 TD. The rest of the Jets were horrible.

PANTHERS 17 @ RAIDERS 6

The Panthers didn’t cruise to victory like we thought they would but they still didn’t have any problems with the Raiders and won by 11. Starting anyone other than Panthers RB DeAngelo Williams was a mistake though and owners of QB Jake Delhomme and WR Steve Smith must be steaming today. Delhomme managed just 77 pass yards with 1 TD and 4 INT while Smith had one catch for nine yards…. that’s ugly! The Raiders continue to be non-factors in Fantasy football. This was football at as ugly as it gets.

COLTS (4-4) @ STEELERS (6-2)

The Steelers appeared to be heading to the penthouse and the Colts to the outhouse before their match up on Sunday. After Sunday it looks like the other way around. The Colts were good, the Steelers were bad and we missed badly on this one. We were right in suggesting that you start RB Mewelde Moore as he had 105 total yards and 2 TD. We were also right on suggesting that you sit Big Ben who was horrible with 284 pass yards and 3 INT. Other than that, suggesting you sit your Colts was just plain bad advice…. sorry about that! The Colts have a sweet schedule the rest of the way so we won’t be suggesting you sit them again.

CHIEFS 19 @ CHARGERS 20

What has happened to that scoring juggernaut that was supposed to be the Chargers? The Chiefs gave them all they could handle and then some. We suggested starting all your Chargers and to expect big numbers. The big numbers didn’t exactly come but no one in their right mind would have sat their Chargers. QB Phillips posted a decent 316 yard 2 TD day put also threw 2 INT. RB LT2 was supposed to bust out in this one but managed just 107 total yards without scoring. WR Malcom Floyd led the Charger receivers with 76 yards and 1 TD. TE Antonio Gates was his usual steady self with 66 yards and 1 TD. We were better on forecasting the Chiefs in this one as QB Tyler Thigpen, TE Tony Gonzalez and WR Dwayne Bowe all had a big day as suggested. RB Jamaal Charles was a bust however and should move back to the bench now that Larry Johnson is past his suspensions. Stats Sleeper WR Mark Bradley was huge catching nine passes for 81 yards and 1 TD. The Chiefs have a pretty sweet schedule moving forward and will be Fantasy factors as we head in to the playoffs.

GIANTS 36 @ EAGLES 31

Match up two teams that have run and pass defenses that rank in the top eight and what do you get? 67 points?? Wow, we certainly didn’t see that coming. We suggested that the running backs would be the focal point for both of these teams in this one and they were for the Giants at least. RB Brandon Jacobs had a monster game with 126 yards and 2 TD. RB Brian Westbrook was a bust with just 58 total yards. Both QB’s posted better than expected numbers but all the wide receivers had a mediocre day in this one.

49ers 24 @ CARDINALS 29

Give the 49ers full marks for their effort in this one as a better play call (or execution of the one called) at the end of the game could have earned them a victory. This was a way better game than anyone thought it would be. In the end however, as predicted, the Cardinal starters were huge and the Niner’s starters were not.

Let’s keep it rolling as we preview Week Eleven. The bye weeks are finally over and we are back to a full slate of games the rest of the way. With the Fantasy playoffs looming on the horizon so you need to get on a roll stating this weekend! This is how we see it all shaking out during Week 11.

JETS (6-3) @ PATRIOTS (6-3)

We get a battle of the AFC East division leaders to kick off the week on Thursday Night Football in what should be a very entertaining game. The Jets routed the Rams while the Patriots made the Bills look ordinary in Week Ten.

The Jets are peaking at the perfect time and this is a statement game for them to prove they belong with the NFL elite. The Patriots rank 15th against the pass but have given up 14 touchdowns through the air. Their run defense meanwhile has been stingy allowing just four rushing touchdowns all year. The Jets will have to win this one with the pass so QB Brett Favre is a solid start in this one. RB Thomas Jones has been on fire as of late but we suggest that you temper your expectations of him in this. After a very quiet Week 10 for both Laveranues Coles and Jerricho Crothery one of them has to bust out in this game. We will give the nod to Crothery, but Coles will be decent as well. Jets TE Dustin Keller had a monster game last week but don’t expect another one like that anytime soon.

The Patriots continue to do just enough to win with everyone chipping in with modest numbers. This game will be tough on the Patriots running backs as the Jets have the #5 ranked rushing defense that has been a brick wall for opposing running backs. We suggest that you look elsewhere for your starting running backs this weekend. With the Jets shutting down the run, QB Matt Cassel will be forced to the air. The Jets rank 20th against the pass but we expect Cassel to post modest numbers as the jets will bring heavy pressure and add to their league ranked #2 sack total which stands at 31. Start WR Randy Moss and Wes Welker if you must, just don’t expect big totals from either of them.

BRONCOS (5-4) @ FALCONS (6-3)

The Broncos pulled of a miracle win in Cleveland while the Falcons flew past the Saints in Week Ten.

There will be a ton points scored in this one. The Falcons have become one of the most balanced offensive teams in the entire league. The Broncos can’t stop the run or pass so get your Falcons going in this one.

The Broncos are down to signing running backs off the street and are now a very one-dimensional team. How much RB Tatem Bell is going to help them is anyone’s guess but he does know the system in Denver and is worth a waiver flier. The one dimension the Broncos have is very explosive though and while the Falcons have played reasonably well on defense, they won’t be able to contain QB Jay Cutler and Co. The Falcons corners are both under six feet tall and neither of them will be able to cover WR Brandon Marshall who is 6′ 4″. WR Eddie Royal was the man last week; Marshall will get more attention from Cutler this weekend. The bottom line here is to expect some 70 points scored and a huge Fantasy day from everyone except for any Bronco running back.

LIONS (0-9) @ PANTHERS (7-2)

The Jaguars destroyed the Lions while the Panthers escaped the Black Hole with a win over the Raiders in Week Ten.

Other than DeAngelo Williams, the Panthers looked horrible in Oakland last weekend. They will look 100% better this weekend as the Lions come to town. QB Jake Delhomme Williams and WR Steve Smith will all have a big day here. Don’t let last weeks effort scare you away from these guys as the Raiders can actually play some defense, the Lions can’t. As for the Lions, while most match-ups are bad for them this one is even worse. The Panthers are 4th against the pass and that makes WR Calvin Johnson a risky start. He is the only option the Lions have but this is a tough spot for him. Add to that the QB questions in Detroit and the risk factor goes up even more. The Lions will have to throw and Megatron only needs one pass to do damage so you need to start him, just keep your expectations in check. The Panthers will be up early in this game and that will negate the Lions running attack making RB Kevin Smith nothing more than a RB3 this weekend. Bottom line…. start your Panthers!

EAGLES (5-4) @ BENGALS (1-8)

The Eagles lost a heart breaker to the Giants while the Bengals enjoyed their win of the season while on their bye in Week Ten.

At 5-4 the Eagles can’t afford too many more loses the rest of the way if they want to get back in the wild card hunt. They are not going to be in a very good mood after their Week 10 loss and will take their frustrations out on the Bengals. Cincinnati ranks 25th against the pass and QB Donavan McNabb will torch them early and often. That makes WR Kevin Curtis and DeSean Jackson both a high end WR2 this weekend. RB Brian Westbrook is not 100% healthy but will play and should be started in all formats. This is also a very good spot for the Eagles swarming DF/ST. As for the Bengals … move along, there’s nothing to see here.

SAINTS (4-5) @ CHIEFS (1-8)

The Falcons dominated the Saints while the Chiefs missed a two-point conversion and fell to the Chargers in Week Ten.

Despite having one of the most explosive offenses in the NFL, the Saints find themselves in last place in the NFC South and getting desperate for wins. Now they travel to Arrowhead to face a Chiefs team that always plays tough at home and is playing much better on offense. This is far from a lock win for the Saints. The Chiefs are last in run defense and 24th against the pass so you have to start all your Saints in what should be a shot out style game. The Chiefs have a grand total of SIX sacks so far this year. Can you imagine what Brees is going to do having all day to stand in the pocket and pick them apart? The Saints are hoping to have RB Reggie Bush back for this game but you need to confirm that he will play before penciling him in. If Bush can go, he is a high-end RB1 and that will drop the value of RB Deuce McAllister considerably. If Bush can’t go, Deuce is a good low-end RB1 in this one. The Chiefs have definitely become Fantasy relevant with the play of QB Tyler Thigpen. The Saints lost CB Mike McKenzie to a fractured kneecap and that makes an already bad defense even worse.

We expect that Thigpen will continue his good play and recommend him as a low-end QB1 this weekend. As always, WR Dwayne Bowe and TE Tony Gonzalez should both be in your lineup this weekend. With defenders trying to cover Bowe and Gonzalez, WR Mark Bradley has been left with room to roam. He makes an excellent flex starter in this one. RB Larry Johnson is back and well rested are missing the past several games due to suspensions. While the Chiefs pass more than they run these days, LJ is a good start against the Saints 27th ranked run defense that as allowed 14 TD’s. Expect a ton of points in this game from both teams on the scoreboard and from their Fantasy stars.

RAVENS (6-3) @ GIANTS (9-1)

The Ravens rolled the Texans while the Giants ran all over the Eagles in Week Ten.

The Ravens won their fourth straight game behind a punishing defense, a solid running game and steady play from QB Joe Flacco. It gets a lot more difficult for them this weekend as they head to the Meadowlands. As good as the Ravens have been, they haven’t been up against a defense like the Giants since weeks 4 and 5 against the Steelers and Titans which were both games they lost. The Giants defense will come with constant and heavy pressure on Flacco and his TD to INT ratio will probably be 1:4. It’s anyone’s guess as to who will get the bulk of the running plays for the Ravens so we suggest you just stay away from any Raven this weekend.

The Giants have been cruising but have not faced a defense like the Ravens yet this season. The Ravens have slipped some in pass defense but that’s only because teams abandon the run against them. The Giants however won’t abandon the run in this one and we expect another decent game from RB Brandon Jacobs who is like a human battering ram. QB Eli Manning and the Giants receiving core will have limited opportunities in this game but turnovers should give them a short field to work with. Expect modest numbers out of Manning and his receivers in this one. This is another good spot for emerging TE Kevin Boss, as Manning will need him as an outlet to the pressure of the Ravens defense.

VIKINGS (5-4) @ BUCCANEERS (6-3)

The Vikings came from behind to beat the Packers while the Bucs were on their bye in Week Ten. The Vikings find themselves tied for first in the NFC North while the Bucs are a game back of the Panthers in the NFC South.

The Bucs are one of the toughest teams to play against at home and we are expecting modest numbers from the Vikings here. QB Gus Frerotte continues to match TD passes with interceptions and we suggest the INT’s will outnumber the TD’s this weekend. RB Adrian Peterson busted out for a huge game against the Packers but the Bucs have given up just one rushing TD on the season. Everyone runs on the Packers and no one runs on the Bucs so temper your expectations of AP this weekend. After posting double-digit points in his last four games, WR Bernard Berrian crashed back to earth and was held without a catch in Week 10. He is still the main target for Frerotte though so expect a modest; bounce back game from him this weekend.

The Bucs are trying to keep pace with the Panthers and they both have fairly easy schedules down the road. The Panthers will roll the Lions this weekend so this is a must win game for the Bucs. That being said, the Bucs leading point producer could be their DF/ST this weekend. RB Earnest Graham is questionable for this game with a knee injury but even if he plays you can’t expect much from him against the Vikings stout run defense. There is nothing special about Jeff Garcia or his receiving core so we suggest you look elsewhere for both your QB and WR’s this weekend.

Stats Sleeper

RB Cadillac Williams is expected to roll out of the garage this weekend and may have to start. It’s not a good match up for him, but he is worth a flier if you are desperate at the running back position.

RAIDERS (2-7) @ DOLPHINS (5-4)

The Dolphins survived against the Seahawks while the Raiders battled hard but ended up losing to the Panthers in Week Ten.

The Dolphins have run off three wins in a row and, with a win here, would move into a second place tie and be one game back in the AFC East. As hard as it is to imagine this is the second week in a row that the Dolphins are a lock to win. The Raiders are traveling from West to East for a morning game and not one team has won making that trip this season. It won’t be a walk for the Dolphins but they will win this game. The Raiders have been horrible on offense but decent on defense so be careful whom you start in this game. The easiest way to beat the Raiders is to run, run and then run some more. Expect a big game from RB Ronnie Brown in this one as the Raiders give up an average of 158.1 yards a game. RB Ricky Williams is a good flex option in this one as well. We hesitate against recommending QB Chad Pennington and his receiving options here because the Raiders rank 13th against the run. As far as the Raiders go … forget about ‘em!

BEARS (5-4) @ PACKERS (4-5)

The Bears struggled but beat the Lions while the Packers let one get away late against the Vikings in Week Ten.

This is another huge divisional game this weekend and should be very entertaining as well. The Bears are looking to go two up on the Pack while the Packers are looking to draw even with the Bears and Vikings. The Bears will want to run all day on the Packers as they rank 3rd against the pass but just 28th against the run. Start RB Matt Forte and enjoy. No one else from the Bears can be trusted in this game. The Packers will want to attack through the air as the Bears rank 30th against the pass and 4th against the run. Expect a big day from QB Aaron Rodgers and WR Greg Jennings. WR Donald Driver has done most of the damage the last couple weeks for the Packers, but it will be Jennings this weekend. RB Ryan Grant has started to crank it up and will be good as the snow starts to fly but we suggest you reserve him this weekend.

Stats Sleeper

TE Donald Lee is in a good spot this weekend as the Packers should go to a 2:1 pass versus run ratio against the Bears.

TEXANS (3-6) @ COLTS (5-4)

The Ravens crushed the Texans while the Colts gutted out an impressive win in Pittsburgh in Week Ten.

This is a battle of two teams passing like ships in the night. Since their three cupcake wins against inferior talent the Texans have dropped two straight while the Colts have had impressive wins over the Patriots and Steelers. The Colts will dominate this game from start to finish as they continue their push for a wildcard spot. They are close to 100% healthy and QB Peyton Manning, RB Joseph Addia, WR Reggie Wayne and TE Dallas Clark are all in line for a huge game in this one. The Texans have given up 29 touchdowns and the Colts should push that total to 34. You can also use Anthony Gonzalez as a flex position this weekend. The Texans will need to air it out in this one, as they will be down early. That’s a good thing for QB Sage Rosenfel, WR Andre Johnson and TE Daniel Owens. Hopefully your league is lenient on INT’s because Rosenfel’s will definitely throw at least two. Even though the match up looks good for RB Steve Slaton, we hesitate recommending him because the Texans will abandon the run early and Slaton has definitely hit the proverbial “rookie wall”.

Stat Sleeper

If the Colts pay too much attention to AJ and Owens, WR Kevin Walter will sneak behind the Colts defenders. He has been on a good game then bad game streak for the past seven weeks but he may buck that trend this weekend.

RAMS (2-7) @ 49ERS (2-7)

The Jets dismantled the Rams while the 49ers hung with the Cardinals but came up short in Week Ten.

If the Rams played the 49ers, would anyone care? Apart from gamblers and Fantasy Fanatics, we doubt it. This game isn’t even that attractive from a Fantasy standpoint. Rams RB Steven Jackson is questionable again this weekend and you can’t trust him until he shows that he is back at full health. Don’t give up on him because he does have some nice spots in the coming weeks: just be cautious when you consider him. The Rams passing game has been horrible the past couple of weeks, but do have a decent match up here against the 49ers, who have allowed 14 passing touchdowns. The Rams say they are committed to QB Marc Bulger but on the road, he is a very risky option. With the QB controversy in St. Louis, it’s also hard to trust Torry Holt and Donnie Avery and both should be considered as nothing more than a low end WR2.

The 49ers played with a lot of heart against the Cardinals in the national spotlight on Monday and one has to wonder how deflating the loss will be. RB Frank Gore was held out of practice on Wednesday with neck strain. That could have more to do with the 49ers resting Gore on a short week but you need to keep an eye on his status. If he plays he will be huge against the Rams and their 30th ranked run defense. The rams are equally bad against the pass but trusting your Fantasy week to QB Shaun Hill is a stretch at best. The 49ers receiving core is all messed up right now and can’t be trusted. TE Vernon Davis responded to his early shower in Week 9 with a spectacular TD catch against the Cards but it was his only catch and he should not be in your starting roster.

Stats Sleeper

The 49ers have ruled WR Josh Morgan out against the Rams. WR Jason Hill will get the start. Hill showed a lot of faith in him by passing to him on three consecutive plays to get the 49ers to the goal line late in the game on MNF. If you are short at the WR position, Hill is worth a flier against the Rams.

CARDINALS (6-3) @ SEAHAWKS (2-7)

The Cardinals got a scare from the lowly 49ers while the Seahawks hung close but lost to the Dolphins in Week Ten.

The Cardinals received a wake up call on MNF and you can expect them to come out firing on all cylinders against the lowly Seahawks. Despite the win, their performance against the 49ers was embarrassing. The weather forecast is for a beautiful day in Seattle and with the Seahawks ranked 31st against the pass expect Warner and company to come out with bombs away early and often. Warner, Boldin and Fitzgerald will all be huge as no one on the Seahawks can hang with either of them. After a big game on MNF, expect WR Steve Breaston to fall back to his WR3 role in this one. You should not have anyone starting from the Seahawks this weekend. QB Matt Hasselbeck is expected back for this weekend’s game but expect him to need at least a week to shake off the rust. There will be some value on the Seahawks roster in the coming weeks and we will update you when we see spots that fit. For this weekend however, you should sit your Seahawks.

TITANS (9-0) @ JAGUARS (4-5)

The Titans went into Soldier Field and beat the Bears while the Jaguars feasted on the Lions in Week 10.

The Jaguars finally got back to “chopping wood” in Week 10 and rolled to an easy victory. The Jags ran 33 times while passing 25 times. We have preached for weeks that they need this kind of balance to win and they finally did. It gets a lot tougher for them this weekend though as the Titans bring their 8th ranked rushing defense to town. We still say their only way to win this one is to pound the ball with Maurice Jones-Drew with some change of pace reps to Fred Taylor. We would start Jones-Drew as a RB2 without hesitation. We recommend staying away for QB David Garrard and his receiving core this weekend as the Titans have allowed just 5 TD passes this season.

The Titans proved they can pass when they want to and showed it against the Bears last weekend. Look for the Titans to go back to more running than passing this weekend. The Jaguars rank 20th against the run but have allowed just seven rushing TD’s. That being said, over the past four weeks the Jags have given up an average of 121 rush yards a game to inferior running backs. Both Chris Johnson and LenDale White are in a good spot here. QB Kerry Collins will slip back some as will his newest weapon WR Brandon Jones. Bo Scaife continues to be a good low end TE1 for the Titans.

CHARGERS (4-5) @ STEELERS (6-3)

The Chargers barely beat the Chiefs while the Steelers were stunned at home by the Colts in Week Ten.

This is a battle of two teams that are becoming more impossible to figure out with each passing week. The Steelers looked invincible against the Redskins and then very ordinary against the Colts. His injured shoulder is obviously hampering QB Big Ben as he has thrown eight INT in his last 2.5 games. If he is going to get back to his early season form he has a very good chance to do it against the Chargers who are last against the pass. Expect Big Ben to bounce back somewhat here; just don’t expect a monster game. The Steelers backfield is still in flux and you have to wait to game time each week before starting Willie Parker or Mewelde Moore. Moore has definitely been the better back of the two over the past few weeks so start Parker at your own risk. WR’s Hines Ward and Santonio Holmes are up and down on a weekly basis. We think it is Holmes turn this week. The Chargers were anything but impressive last week and will need to be much better to win against the Steelers. How the Bolts go about doing that is the big question. The Colts were able to pass on the Steelers last weekend so expect the Chargers to start there. QB Philip Rivers is having a lights out season and is tough to sit but you will need to temper your expectations of him. WR Vincent Jackson should be good here as will TE Antonio Gates. LT2 was set up for a monster game last week but, for the most part, was a bust. The King is losing his grip on the Kingdom and is not a sure thing to produce on any given weekend anymore. You have to start him, but expect a mediocre game out of him in this one.

COWBOYS (5-4) @ REDSKINS (6-3)

Both teams were on their bye last weekend. This is a rematch of their Week Four game that the Redskins won 26-24 and started the Cowboys recent skid.

The Redskins had a week to recover from their beat down at the hands of the Steelers on MNF in Week Nine. They are 2-2 over their last four games and have not looked impressive doing so. QB Jason Campbell needs to get back on track or it will be a long day for the Redskins. The Cowboys are hurting on defense and have given up 12 passing touchdowns. With RB Clinton Portis not 100% healthy so Campbell will air it out and we expect a decent game out of him. Check the status of Portis before starting him. WR Santana Moss had an extra week to get over his hamstring injury and was at full practice on Wednesday. In their Week 4 match up Moss had 145 yards but didn’t score. We expect a similar yards and a score from him this weekend. TE Chris Cooley has caught 14 passes in his last two games and that trend will continue against the Cowboys so start him with confidence.

The Cowboys get QB Tony Romo back for this game. If they weren’t so desperate for a win Romo would probably sit another week and, as it is, he will be playing with a splint on his pinkie finger. It shouldn’t have too much of an affect on him as we are sure it’s a top of the line splint. Start Romo with confidence. The Redskins will have to respect the Cowboys passing game in this one and that will open holes and space for RB Marion Barber and he should be started in all formats. You can also welcome back TE Jason Witten and get back to enjoying his stud production. Who gets more targets between Terrell Owens and Roy Williams is a tough call. We will give the edge to TO as Williams hasn’t had very many reps thus far and TO could go ballistic if he is ignored again this week. Expect this game to be one of the many shot outs this weekend.

BROWNS (3-6) @ BILLS (5-4)

The Browns were up big and let it slip away to the Broncos while the Patriots in Week Ten smothered the Bills.

Browns VS Bills on MNF? Well, I guess we expected a horrible game last week and it turned out to be somewhat entertaining so maybe we can hope for more of the same this Monday. The Browns have blown big leads the last two weeks and let a very productive first start by QB Brady Quinn slip away. This will be a somewhat more difficult match up for Quinn but we still suggest starting him as a high end QB2 in this one if you are stuck for a QB. RB Jamal Lewis had a cupcake match up against the Broncos last week and did not take full advantage of it. The Bills have been good against the run so expect Lewis to produce at an RB2 level. WR Baryon Edwards continues to drop balls on a regular basis and can no longer be trusted as a WR1. The Browns used a lot of underneath passing to protect Quinn in his first start. We expect more of the same so be sure to get TE Kellen Winslow active here.

The Bills have fallen on tough times offensively and have scored just 43 points in there last three games. Trent Edwards has cooled off considerably, but Culter torched the Browns last week and Edwards has a nice spot here. Don’t expect a huge game, but 20 Fantasy points wouldn’t be a reach here. The guy who really has to get it going for the Bills is RB Marshawn Lynch who has been nearly invisible for the past two weeks. Expect him to get back on track against the Browns 26th ranked rushing defense. In a game of getting back on track, you need to start WR Lee Evens, as he will return to his solid WR2 status.

That’s it for Week Eleven. As always, we hope your week is injury free and point prosperous!

Email us at info@footballstatsguru.com if you have roster questions or concerns. We are happy to offer our advice and expertise.

Enjoy The Games!

StatsGuru

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Beasts and Busts - Week Ten NFL Projections http://www.footballstatsguru.com/archives/2008/11/08/week-ten-nfl-projections/ http://www.footballstatsguru.com/archives/2008/11/08/week-ten-nfl-projections/#comments Sun, 09 Nov 2008 00:12:11 +0000 adminnadia http://www.footballstatsguru.com/?p=326 Our Week Nine NFL Projections was a mixed bag of successes and failures for StatsGuru, so let’s examine our results before moving on to Week Ten.

Rookie TE Derek Fine scores his first NFL career touchdown

Rookie TE Derek Fine scores his first NFL career touchdown on Sunday Nov. 2nd. After setting up shop about 5 yards deep in the end zone, QB Trent Edwards fired him a pass that he caught for his first career catch. (Photo: roster buffalobills.com)

JETS 26 @ BILLS 17

This game was dominated by defense and saw just two offensive touchdowns, one from Jets RB Thomas Jones and one from the Bills TE, Derek Fine. Derek Who? That was a theme all weekend across the NFL as unheralded players erupted in several games. This wasn’t the aerial show we had predicted and other than Jones, no offensive stars produced in this game.

LIONS 23 @ BEARS 27

Then there was ONE! The ONE is the Lions who are now the NFL’s lone winless team through nine weeks. They had a chance in this one but let it slip away. The Bears lost QB Kyle Orton to a high ankle sprain in this game but he did manage 107 passing yards and a rushing TD before he left the game. As predicted RB Matt Forte got back on track in this one and WR Rashied Davis had another strong game. As forecasted, the lone bright spot for the Lions was WR Calvin Johnson. Stats Sleeper was a prediction that Daunte Culpepper would be signing with the Lions and he has. Depending on what kind of shape he is in and the health of his knee, this could be a big boost for the Lions. We know it’s basketball but did you notice that the Pistons traded for Allen Iverson this week? Look for LeBron James to be a Piston and Iverson to be a Cavalier in 2010.

JAGUARS 19 @ BENGALS 21

The Lions are the lone winless team in the NFL because the Bengals put a whipping on the Jaguars. Don’t let the final score fool you; the Jags were horrible in this one. The Bengals almost let it slip away late but hung on for a very deserving win. We don’t have any trust in any of the Bengals but they did produce this week. QB Ryan Fitzpatrick threw two touchdowns to WR Chad Johnson and RB Cedric Benson had a big day with 109 total yards and 1 TD. Before you consider starting these guys, remember that they are on their bye in Week 10 and have a brutal schedule the rest of the way. The Jaguars were horrible in this one on both sides of the ball. They faced the leagues 28th ranked run defense and attempted just 21 rushes. That makes them 1-5 when they pass more than they run. Brutal! It wasn’t the monster day we predicted for RB Maurice Jones-Drew but he did have 62 total yards and 1 TD. QB David Garrard had a horrible day and soon to be suspended WR Matt Jones had just 69 yards receiving. After this outing you have to be leery about starting any Jaguar, other than Drew-Jones, the rest of the way.

RAVENS 37 @ BROWNS 27

Who saw 64 points coming out of this game? No one. Apart from suggesting that you keep an eye on RB Ray Rice, who went off in this game with 174 total yards, we missed on this one entirely. Fantasy Football can be cruel can’t it? QB Joe Flacco turned into Joe Montana and Derrick Mason turned into Jerry Rice. Flacco had 248 pass yards with two touchdowns while Mason had nine catches for 136 yards and 1 TD. If you started either of them, good for you! QB Derek Anderson and WR Braylon Edwards both had a good day for the Browns. All that said, if you are trusting your Fantasy season to the offense of the Browns and Ravens, you are still in trouble down the road. Stats Sleeper TE Kellen Winslow had a modest five-catch 64-yard day.

BUCCANEERS 30 @ CHIEFS 27 (OT)

We said this one would be close and it certainly was as the Bucs escaped Arrowhead in an overtime win against the Chiefs. It wasn’t pretty for the Bucs but they’ll take it! Earnest Graham had a disappointing day as he totaled just 91 yards and lost two fumbles. QB Jeff Garcia got the offense rolling late and totaled 339 pass yards with 115 of them, and his touchdown, going to WR Antonio Bryant. Bryant continues to frustrate his Fantasy owners as he has three games with over 100 receiving yards and 58 or less in his other five games. The Bucs DF/ST had a disappointing day and gave up their first rushing TD of the season to RB Kolby Smith who was then lost for the season with a knee injury. The Chiefs totaled 185 rushing yards in this one and deserved a better fate. Stats Sleeper Bucs WR Joey Galloway was a bust with just one catch for 22 yards.

TEXANS 21 @ VIKINGS 28

This one followed the script we forecasted almost to the letter Other than QB Matt Schaub, who was lost to a knee injury, WR Andre Johnson and TE Owen Daniels both had a good day. Rookie RB Steve Slaton struggled in this one with just 62 rushing yards but had another 56 receiving yards. The Vikings were able to run on the Texans defense and RB Adrian Peterson had 139 yards and 1 TD. WR Bernard Berrian stayed hot as forecasted with 104 yards and 1 TD on just two catches. Stats Sleeper WR Bobby Wade was a bust as the Vikings only attempted 18 passes.

CARDINALS (4-3) @ RAMS (2-5)

We thought this would be a high scoring game and Cardinals held up their end by scoring 34 points. As fore casted QB Kurt Warner had a big day with 342 yards and two touchdowns. WR Anquan Boldin had another solid game with 85 yards and 1 TD. WR Larry Fitzgerald had a six-catch 81-yard day. After a hot start to the game, the Rams went ice cold and were shutout in the 2nd and 3rd quarters. QB Marc Bulger had a decent day but didn’t post the kind of numbers we expected. RB Steven Jackson was definitely not 100% and was a bust in this one with just seven touches for 17 yards. Stats Sleeper rookie RB Tim Hightower had a monster day with 109 rushing yards and 1 TD.

PACKERS 16 @ TITANS 19 (OT)

As suggested, the Titans needed a strong running game in this one and they got it. RB’s Chris Johnson and LenDale White totaled 166 yards and 1 TD. As predicted, no one else from the Titans produced any stats lines including their DF/ST. We suggested the Packers would need to pass and they did. Packers QB Aaron Rodgers went to the air 41 times for 314 yards 1 TD and 1 INT. WR Greg Jennings had a quiet day with three catches for 79 yards as WR Donald Driver did most of the damage with a 136 yard 1 TD day. RB Ryan Grant struggled with just 86 yards on 20 carries. Stats Sleeper, TE Donald Lee, was a bust with just three catches for 22 yards.

DOLPHINS 26 @ BRONCOS 17

We said these two teams are headed in opposite directions and this was certainly the case on Sunday. Dolphins QB Chad Pennington had a modest, 281-pass yard 1 INT day. RB Ronnie Brown was held in check for most of the day but did finish with 89 total yards and 1 TD. As suggested, WR Greg Camario had a big day with seven catches for 111 yards but TE Anthony Fasano was a bust with just two catches for 37 yards. The Broncos were frustrated all day by the Dolphins and attempted just 12 rushing plays to 41 pass plays. If your league is interception friendly, QB jay Cutler had a good day with 307 pass yard and 2 TD’s but he also threw 3 INT’s. As suggested, WR Eddie Royal had a good day with 7 catches for 69 yards and 1 TD. WR Brandon Marshall was a bust after registering just two catches for 27 yards. Little known Denver RB Peyton Hills was the surprise of the game with seven catches for 116 yards and 1 TD. No one saw that coming and it will be interesting to see if it happens again down the road. Stats Sleeper Denver rookie RB Ryan Torain had three carries for just one yard but is still worth keeping an eye on moving forward.

COWBOYS 14 @ GIANTS 35

We suggested this would get ugly for QB Brad Johnson and the Cowboys very quickly and it certainly did. As predicted this was a big bounce back game for Giants RB Brandon Jacobs who had 117 rushing yards and 1 TD. Giants RB Derrick Ward chipped in with 89 total yards and 1 TD. QB Eli Manning threw for three touchdowns and, as predicted, TE Kevin Boss and Stats Sleeper WR Steve Smith both had a TD. WR Plaxico Burress had a surprisingly quiet day though. As suggested, the Cowboys struggled and were horrible in this one. Hopefully you followed our recommendation and benched your Cowboys. Things will get better for all of them once QB Tony Romo returns following their Week 10 bye.

FALCONS 24 @ RAIDERS 0

We thought the Raiders may pose a problem for the Falcons in the “Black Hole” but, while we were wrong, we were also right. We were wrong in suggesting they might have a tough time winning, but we were right on the stat day for the Falcons. RB Michael Turner got his yards (139) in this one but it wasn’t monster day most (except us) were expecting out of him as he failed to score a TD. QB Matt Ryan had a serviceable day with 220 pass yards and two touchdowns but, as predicted, WR Roddy White was held in check by shutdown corner Nnamdi Asomugha and totaled just 54 yards without a score. The Raiders were awful with just 77 yards of offense and we apologize for recommending RB Justin Fargas and Stats Sleeper WR Chaz Schilens.

EAGLES 26 @ SEAHAWKS 7

The Eagles allowed the Seahawks a first possession score and then shut them out the rest of the way. In fact, the Seahawks managed to get into Eagles territory just twice after their first possession and one of those was in garbage time late in the forth quarter. QB Donavan McNabb had the solid game we predicted passing for 349 yards and two touchdowns with 1 INT. RB Brian Westbrook was a bit disappointing with just 96 total yards and WR DeSean Jackson was a bust with just two catches for 20 yards. This was another game that featured a no name coming to the forefront as TE Brent Celek had 131 yards on six catches filling in for L.J. Smith. As suggested, the Seahawks reverted to their woeful ways with just 233 total yards with 90 of them coming on a TD catch by Koren Robinson on their first possession.

PATRIOTS 15 @ COLTS 18

Despite 643 total yards this was a very ugly game for both teams. The Patriots tried to dink and dunk the Colts all day but Colts defense held firm and allowed just 1 TD to RB Benjarvus Green-Ellis while RB Kevin Faulk had 98 total yards. QB Matt Cassel, WR’s Randy Moss and Wes Welker all had very mediocre games. As predicted, Colts QB Peyton Manning took advantage of the battered Patriots secondary with 254 yards and two touchdowns. With Reggie Wayne hurting we expected a big day from WR Anthony Gonzalez and he responded 55 yards and two touchdowns. Wayne and WR Marvin Harrison both had a modest day and TE Dallas Clark caught 4 balls for 63 yards. As suggested, the Colts running game struggled as Addai looked rusty and the Colts ran just 21 rushing plays.

STEELERS 23 @ REDSKINS 6

We forecasted problems for everyone from the Redskins in this one and that was certainly the case. The Steelers forced QB Jason Campbell to throw his first two INT’s of the season and cruised to an easy victory. RB Willie Parker returned and had a decent game with 70 rush yards and 1 TD. QB Big Ben left the game in the second quarter, as his ailing shoulder didn’t hold up. Backup QB Byron Leftwich lead the Steelers on two impressive second half scoring drives. The Steelers held the leagues leading rusher, RB Clinton Portis, to just 51 rush yards but he had a strong receiving game with seven catches for 73. As forecasted TE Chris Cooley lead all receivers with eight catches for 78 yards but was held out of the end zone. As suggested, Santana Moss had a dismal game with two receptions for 14 yards.

That’s a wrap for Week Nine!

The playoffs are looming closer in many leagues and it’s getting down to crunch time. Let’s have a look at what to expect in Week Ten.

BRONCOS (4-4) @ BROWNS (3-5)

The Dolphins embarrassed the Broncos while the Ravens came from behind to beat the Browns in Week Nine.

The Browns make the move to QB Brady Quinn for the first Thursday night game of the year. We aren’t sure if this move is the brightest ever but we’ll see. It’s a big stage that Quinn is being thrown on to with a national audience taking in this one. (provided they have the NFL Network). We would have made the change a couple weeks back but we warned this was coming. It’s impossible to know how Quinn will react under the gun so we are going to reserve judgment of him and the Browns receiving core. One thing is fairly certain though, the Broncos will get huge doses of RB Jamal Lewis in this game and stopping him will be a problem. We expect Lewis to one of the top producing running backs this weekend.

The Broncos are a mess and going on the road with a short week of rest certainly won’t help. The Browns have not been good at stopping the run but the Broncos have been decimated by injury at RB. Ryan Torain is expected to start for the Broncos but we think you need to wait a week or so before penciling him as a starter. RB Selvin Young is expected to play in this game as well but is still not 100% healthy. The Browns are decent against the pass and the pass is all the Broncos have at this point. Expect a decent game from QB Jay Cutler and a bounce back game from WR Brandon Marshall. Don’t expect a repeat performance from FB Peyton Hills but it will be interesting to see how many looks and touches he gets in this one.

Stats Sleeper

The Broncos are expecting TE Tony Scheffler back for this game and he should get a lot of looks from Cutler and is in line for a productive game.

SAINTS (4-4) @ FALCONS (5-3)

The Saints were on their bye while the Falcons shut out the Raiders in Week Nine.

Expect fireworks in this one as both teams have a ton of weapons on offense and neither of them is very good on defense. Don’t let last week’s shutout of the Raiders and the Falcons allowing 77 net yards fool you, the Saints are not the Raiders. This is a huge game for both these teams as they try to keep pace with the 6-2 Panthers in the NFC South.

The Saints rank 25th against the pass and 18th against the run. The Falcons will want to control the clock and keep the Saints high-powered offense off the field. Look for heavy doses of RB Michael Turner early in this one. Once the score starts climbing the Falcons will have to match the Saints so feel comfortable in starting QB Matt Ryan and look for WR Roddy White to bounce back in this game. Despite his 2 TD game last week, WR Marty Jenkins continues to be a hit or miss prospect. We expect him to be a miss this weekend, as the Saints don’t have a shut down corner to control White.

The Falcons rank 16th against the pass and 22nd against the run. The Saints will pound the line with RB Deuce McAllister early in this one to soften up the linebackers and then bombs away for QB Drew Brees and Co. McAllister and Brees are both good starts in this one. We also expect this will be the week WR Marques Colston returns to his marquee status as an elite NFL wide receiver.

Stats Sleeper

TE BIlly Miller has been playing behind Fantasy Super Bust Jeremy Shockey the past couple of weeks but has been out-producing him. Look for another solid week out of the bruising and fearless TE.

TITANS (8-0) @ BEARS (5-3)

The Titans beat Green Bay in overtime while the Bears struggled but came from behind to beat the Lions in Week Nine.

This is a battle of division leaders and the first real road test for the Titans this season. Don’t expect a lot of points on the scoreboard or Fantasy wise from this game. The Bears strength is protecting against the run their #5 ranked run defense will challenge the heart of the Titans offense. The Titans will continue to pound the ball on the ground with RB’s LeDale White and Chris Johnson but both should see only moderate success. With the running game bottled up the Titans will be forced to the air. That’s not a necessary bad thing this week as the Bears rank 30th against the pass and are giving up 247 yards a game. The Bears are healthy in the secondary in recent weeks but this is still a good spot for Titans TE Boo Scaife. If you are stuck for a starting QB or WR this weekend, you can expect decent numbers out of QB Kerry Collins and WR Justin McCareins.

The Bears lost QB Kyle Orton to a high ankle sprain on Sunday and now turn back to Rex Grossman, as Orton should be out four at least four weeks. Grossman lead the Bears comeback against the Lions, but this is the Titans and we are hesitant to recommend him in this one. The Bears best chance in this game comes from their defense and pounding the ball on the ground with RB Matt Forte. That will be easier said than done however and we suggest you tempter your expectations of Forte. The Titans will bring huge pressure on Grossman so look for him to try to dump the ball off to Forte and TE Desmond Clark. WR Rashied Davis continues to be very active for the Bears and is a good low end WR2 this weekend.

Stats Sleeper

After a hot start to the season, injuries have turned WR Justin Gage ice cold. He is worth a flier this weekend however against the Bears pass defense.

JAGUARS (3-5) @ LIONS (0-8)

The Jaguars lost to the Bengals while the Lions let one slip away against the Bears in Week Nine.

Could this be the week the Lions finally break their winless streak? If the recent play of the Jaguars is any indication, it just may be. The Jaguars have looked horrible in back to back loses and the Lions continue to fight without anything to show for it.

We sound like a broken record every time we discuss the Jaguars but they have to run the ball if they expect to have success. We know it, you know, why don’t THEY know it? Last week they faced a Bengals team ranked 28th against the rush and failed to take advantage of it. The Lions rank 31st against the run and give up an average of over 161 rushing yards a game. Do you think the Jags will be able to figure it out? We suggest they will and expect a monster game out of RB Maurice Jone-Drew in this one. We expected it last week and didn’t get it but we’ll go back to the well one more time. The Lions are equally inept against the pass, with a 29th ranking, but we expect the Jags to pull back some on QB David Garrard. That being said, Garrard will be a serviceable QB2 this weekend. The NFL still hasn’t ruled on the suspension appeal by WR Matt Jones and, if he plays, he is a great start here. The NFL usually makes suspension and appeal results known on Wednesdays so expect Jones to play against the Lions. The Jaguars are hoping to get some value out of their $30 million man, WR Jerry Porter. It’s now or never for Porter and he’s worth a flier this weekend. TE Marcedes Lewis is worth a start in this one if you are short at the TE position.

As mentioned, the Lions continue to battle but have nothing to show for their efforts thus far. QB Dan Orlovsky is expected to be inactive this weekend with a thumb injury so enter new Lions QB Daunte Culpepper. As a life long Lions Fan StatsGuru welcomes the addition of Culpepper and we bet WR Calvin Johnson does as well. Culpepper has shown that he still has a canon for and arm in these weeks’ practices and has received more practice reps than QB Drew Stanton who will back him up on Sunday. If you are desperate for a QB this weekend take a flier on Daunte as the Lions need to entertain the hometown faithful and the Jags defense has given up 14 TD passes. WR Johnson continues to be a must-start. It looks like the Rudi Johnson experiment is coming to an end in Detroit and RB Kevin Smith will be returning to the starting and featured back role this weekend. Rudi just doesn’t have much left in the tank and can’t get it going with the Lions weak offensive line. The Jags rank 20th against the rush so consider Smith a decent RB2 this weekend.

Stats Sleeper

WR Mike Walker is back at full practice this week. Before he missed time with a knee injury and then an infection issue, Walker put up decent back-to-back games. The Jags are looking for anything that can jump-start their struggling offense so keep an eye on Walker.

RAVENS (5-3) @ TEXANS (3-5)

The Ravens beat the Browns while the Texans had their modest three-game winning streak snapped by the Vikings in Week Nine.

The Ravens continue to be one of the most surprising teams this season and they have even started to become Fantasy relevant from positions other than their defense. They now own the second longest current winning streak in the NFL with three wins in a row. In those three wins, they have racked up 93 points. QB Joe Flacco has been very solid and has scored five touchdowns with no interceptions over the last three weeks. You can certainly do worse at the QB position this weekend as the Ravens face a Texans pass defense that has given up 12 TD passes. Ravens RB Willis McGahee has started to lose touches to RB Ray Rice in huge numbers. With RB LeRon McClain in the mix it’s a guessing game as to who will be the most productive of the three. The Texans are weak against the run and we expect a big week out Rice while McGahee and McClain will both get touches but will post much more modest numbers. Highly underrated, reception machine, Ravens WR Derrick Mason had a huge game last week and has developed a good connection with his rookie QB. Mason is a good high-end WR2 this weekend. TE Todd Heap continues to be nothing more than a blocking TE for the Ravens and should not be started in any format.

The Texans turn back to QB Sage Rosenfel as QB Matt Schaub is out for at least four weeks with a torn MCL. The Texans don’t change things any with Rosenfel at QB and, if anything, they throw even more. The Ravens rank 4th in pass defense but have given up 10 TD passes so look for Rosenfels to have a decent, though not spectacular, game in this one. This is especially true if your league is INT friendly because the Ravens have 10 INT’s on the season and should add at least a couple more to that total this weekend. The Ravens are still the top ranked run defense in the league so we caution against starting rookie RB Steve Slaton in this one. He will get his touches and his pass receiving skills make him a somewhat viable option but we just don’t see anything more than 85 total yards out of him in this game. WR Andre Johnson and TE Owen Daniels continue to be must-starts from the Texans,

SEAHAWKS (2-6) @ DOLPHINS (4-4)

The Eagles pounded the Seahawks while the Dolphins beat the Broncos in Denver in Week Nine.

Take whatever value you have in your house, your vehicle and your bank account and drop it down on the Dolphins this weekend. The Seahawks are a mess and now have to do the West to East shuffle and no team has managed a win in that scenario yet this season. The Seahawks certainly don’t have the talent to change that. If, for some strange reason, you own a Seahawk do yourself a favor and make sure he is not in your lineup.

The Dolphins are trying for their third win in a row for the first time since 2006 and they will get it here. The Seahawks are a woeful bunch on defense and rank 21st against the rush and 31st against the pass. QB Chad Pennington will have another serviceable game here. RB Ronnie Brown stepped up last week after a couple of down weeks and we expect even better numbers from him in this one. The WR flavor of the day for the Dolphins is, as always, anyone’s guess but we think it will be back to Ted Ginn Jr. for the Dolphins this weekend. TE Anthony Fasano continues to play a key support role for the Dolphins and is a serviceable TE2 this weekend.

Stats Sleeper

RB Ricky Williams has seen his role steadily decrease in recent weeks but makes a good flex start this week, as he should produce in garbage time for the Dolphins.

PACKERS (4-4) @ VIKINGS (4-4)

The Packers lost to the Titans in OT while the Vikings beat the Texans in Week Nine.

This one is another huge interdivisional game this weekend as both of these teams try to keep pace with the Bears and are one game back. The Bears face the Titans and a loss by them moves one of these teams into a tie for the division lead. The other drops two games back and is in trouble.

The Vikings ran 35 rushing plays to just 18 passing plays last weekend against the Texans. Expect more of the same this weekend as the Packers rank 27th against the rush but are a solid 5th against the pass. QB Gus Freotte had just 11 completions last weekend but three of them went for touchdowns. Expect more modest numbers from the veteran this weekend. RB Adrian Peterson has come on strong with 260 rush yards and 3 TD’s in his last two games. He hasn’t produced what was expected of him this season but is always a must-start. WR Bernard Berrian has been red hot with TD catches in his last four games. You have to start him but we suggest that you temper your expectations as the Vikings should run all day that will limit his chances. TE Visanthe Shiancoe has had a TD in back to back games and is starting to emerge as a solid, high end TE2. Start him if your TE options are limited.

BILS (5-3) @ PATRIOTS (5-3)

The Bills lost to the Jets while the Patriots lost to the Colts in Week Nine.

This is another key divisional match up on a weekend full of them. The Bills looked they were going to run away with AFC East early on but now they are sinking like sunset after loses in three of their last four games. It’s time for the Bills to get back to basics and pound the ball with RB Marshawn Lynch both on the ground and through the air. Lynch was suffering from the flu last weekend and that is part of the reason for his limited touches but is back to 100% for this one. Expect at least 25 touches from the bruising back and a nice game from him this weekend. QB Trent Edwards has been up and down over the past four games and his turnovers have been costly for the Bills. It doesn’t help that he has had various injuries during that time but he has not handled the defensive pressure thrown his way very well. Expect the Bills to pull back on him somewhat but he does face a vulnerable Pats secondary so expect a decent start from him this weekend. WR Lee Evans had his worst game of the year against the Jets in Week 9 but is a must-start every weekend and he will bounce back against the Patriots.

The Patriots are like a box of chocolates in that you never know what you are going to get. In their eight games this season the Patriots have had the games leading QB, RB and WR just eight times out of a possible 24. Five of the eight came in the SF and Den wins. Injuries have certainly been a big part of the reason as the Patriots have had a ton of them. This week they’re at home against a Bills team that is searching for answers. Week in and week out it’s becoming more and more difficult to recommend Patriots as potential Fantasy stars. This week is no different as the Bills rank 12th against the run and 15th against the pass. We expect a low scoring game here so you need to temper your expectations of the Patriots. QB Matt Cassel has been dismal since his big game in Week 7 and can’t be trusted in this one. The running back situation in New England is still a mess. Last week RB’s Benjarvus Green-Ellis and Kevin Faulk were both in on 33 snaps and they both tallied about the same fantasy points at 11 and 9 points respectively. Green-Ellis will get goal line carries while Faulk catches more balls and you can expect more of the same this weekend. If we had to choose one over the other, we would start Faulk.

It should be noted that both Sammy Morris and LaMont Jordan are getting very close to returning to the lineup and that will make this murky situation even more clouded. WR Randy Moss has been limited in practice again this week but he was last week as well. He ended up playing on each of the Pats 68 offensive snaps and should this weekend as well. It’s hard to sit a guy who’s a TD threat on ever snap so start him and hope for the best. It should be noted that all four of his TD catches have come at home. The same can’t be said for Wes Welker who has scored double-digit Fantasy points just once this season and even that was just 12 points. If you play in a PPR league then you start him, if you don’t you should look at other options for your WR2. The TE spot in New England hasn’t produced at all this season and we don’t see that changing anytime soon.

RAMS (2-6) @ JETS (5-3)

The Jets beat the Bills while the Cardinals in Week Nine crushed the Rams.

Even with an up and down season, the Jets at home are a huge mismatch for the Rams. The Jets have been stellar at stopping the run and the Rams are plucking guys off the street to run the ball. RB Steven Jackson is doubtful for this game and even if he does play he can’t be trusted. The Jets run defense will make the Rams one-dimensional and that dimension is not a good one. It will be a long day for QB Marc Bulger and everyone else from the Rams. We recommend that you avoid starting anyone from St. Louis in this one.

The Jets on the other hand should have their way against a Rams team that has given up 24 touchdowns so far this season. Jets QB Brett Favre has been horrible in recent weeks and a turnover machine. Out of all the Jets, he is the one we would caution against starting as he faces the Rams CB Oshiomogho Atogwe who has four INT’s and is playing at a Pro Bowl level. We aren’t suggesting you sit him but the turnovers are scary. Start Jets RB Thomas Jones, WR’s Laveranues Coles and Jerricho Crothery with confidence and enjoy the points. This one should be over early and the Jets will still have a share of the AFC East lead.

PANTHERS (6-2) @ RAIDERS (2-6)

The Panthers were on their bye while the Raiders managed just 77 yards of total offense in getting shut out by the Falcons in Week 9.

Things go from bad to worse for the Raiders this weekend as the Panthers come to town rested and are looking to widen their lead in the NFC South over the Bucs. We won’t waste your time here, start your Panthers and sit your Raiders…. plain and simple. Hey, don’t we live in a society where family takes over the care of the elderly and their finances once they prove they can no longer do so on their own? When is someone going to step in and look after Al Davis?

COLTS (4-4) @ STEELERS (6-2)

The Colts hung on to beat the Patriots while the Steelers dominated the Redskins in Week Nine.

The Colts don’t have much time to enjoy their win over division rival New England as they roll into Pittsburgh to face the Steelers. This is not a good spot for the Colts. The Steelers are playing lights out on defense and rank #1 and #3 against the pass and run respectively. It will be a long day for the Colts. The O-Line for the Colts hasn’t allowed a sack in three games but the Steelers enter this one with league-leading 32. Constant pressure on QB Peyton Manning will force him to make mistakes and the Steelers will capitalize on them. This is not the Colts of old and we would suggest sitting all of them in this one.

The QB situation is somewhat clouded in Pittsburgh as Big Ben deals with his shoulder injury. It shouldn’t matter though as the Steelers will pound away at the Colts run defense with RB Willie Parker all day. Expect a huge game form him and RB Mewelde Moore is a decent flex option in this one as well. The Colts are stingy against the pass so we suggest looking elsewhere for your starting QB and WR this week.

CHIEFS (1-7) @ CHARGERS ((3-5)

The Chiefs lost in OT to the Bucs and the Chargers were on their bye in Week Nine.

The Chargers push for a playoff spot in the weak AFC West begins this weekend as they welcome the Chiefs who have to be very deflated after their tough OT loss last weekend. Those of you with LT2 will finally get rewarded for your patience this weekend as he feasts on the Chiefs and will be this week’s top point producing RB. In fact, make sure you start any Chargers player you may own and reap the rewards, as this game will exceed 60 in points scored.

How much the OT loss affects the Chiefs is anyone’s guess but the Chargers have been horrible on defense all season. That could change with Ron Rivera at the helm but the Chiefs will score some in this game. RB Jamaal Charles gets the start in this one for the Chiefs and is a sneaky RB2, as he looked strong against the stout Bucs run defense last weekend. The Chargers still rank dead last in pass defense and the Chiefs have nothing to loss so look for them to air it out. QB Tyler Thigpen should face a heavy pass rush and will look for TE Tony Gonzalez when he feels the heat. We like Gonzo in this one. Thigpen is a sneaky start at QB if your options are limited and WR Dwayne Bowe is a receiving machine and should be started in all formats.

Stats Sleeper

At 6′ 2″ WR Mark Bradley has emerged over the past two weeks as another receiving option for the Chiefs and last weekend he threw a pass for a touchdown. The Chiefs will let it all hang out for this divisional match up so Bradley is worth a flier as a WR3 or flex position starter.

GIANTS (7-1) @ EAGLES (5-3)

The Giants crushed the Cowboys while the Eagles had an easy time with the Seahawks in Week Nine.

This is a huge divisional game and should be a battle of the defenses on Sunday Night Football. The Giants take control of the division with a win while the Eagles can get to within a game of first if they win. The Giants rank #2 and #7 against the pass and run while the Eagles are #8 in both categories. In what will be a low scoring affair, the team that makes the least mistakes and protects their QB better will win.

The running backs will be the focal point for both of these teams in this one. RB Brian Westbrook and RB Brandon Jacobs will both post decent stat lines with the advantage going to Westbrook. Both QB’s will face heavy pressure and we don’t trust QB Eli Manning or QB Donavan McNabb in this one. There will be limited chances for the wide receivers in this game but we give a slight edge to DeSean Jackson over Plaxico Burress. All that being said, don’t expect a big Fantasy week from anyone in this game as one of the kickers could post the best stat line over everyone.

49ers (2-6) @ CARDINALS (5-3)

The Cardinals crushed the Rams while the 49ers were on their bye in Week Nine.

The Cardinals are clicking on all cylinders right now and are very tough at home. The 49ers are just plain horrible. How this game ended up as the MNF game is anyone’s guess. There are some great divisional match ups this weekend but, unfortunately, this isn’t one of them! This is another one that we won’t waste your time on. Start your Cardinals and sit your 49ers…. plain and simple!

That’s it for Week Ten. As always, we hope your week is injury free and point prosperous!

Email us at info–@–footballstatsguru.com (remove the dashes) with roster questions or inquiries.

Enjoy The Games!

StatsGuru

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Beasts and Busts - Week Nine NFL Projections http://www.footballstatsguru.com/archives/2008/10/31/week-nine-nfl-projections/ http://www.footballstatsguru.com/archives/2008/10/31/week-nine-nfl-projections/#comments Sat, 01 Nov 2008 05:10:32 +0000 adminnadia http://www.footballstatsguru.com/?p=306 Those of you following the NFL beasts and busts forecasts posted here weekly should be in the hunt for your respective Fantasy Leagues as StatsGuru continues to post great Fantasy advice. Fantasy success requires research and knowing your match-ups on a weekly basis. At footballstatsguru.com, we do the research and you reap the rewards!

We’ll start with a quick review of our Week Eight NFL forecasts and then move on to our Week Nine NFL Projections.

Antonio Gates, San Diego Chargers Tight End Is Tackled

Chargers Tight end Antonio Gates is tackled in the San Diego and New Orleans game in London on Sunday Oct. 26th, 2008. (Photo: Tom Hevezi/AP, Chargers.com)

CHARGERS 32 @ SAINTS 37 @ London England

We predicted this game would be a shoot out and it was as the teams combined for 69 points. We cautioned against using the Saints running backs, but Deuce McAllister came up big with 85 total yards and a TD. Beware down the road though as Deuce is in line for what we expect to be a four week suspension very soon. He should be a safe play until RB Reggie Bush returns though as he will most likely appeal any suspension. We said QB Drew Brees would bounce back from his sub-par Week Seven performance and he did with 339 pass yards and three TD’s. We recommended WR’s Marcus Colston and WR Lance Moore in this game and while Moore had a big day, Colston was mediocre. Chargers QB Philip Rivers, RB LT2, WR Vincent Jackson and TE Antonio Gates all had big days as predicted. Stats Sleeper, RB Aaron Stecker, was a bust.

RAIDERS 10 @ RAVENS 29

This wasn’t the shut out we predicated but it was close. The Raiders were horrible as predicted and should not be in your starting roster or even on your bench. Ravens QB Joe Flacco had a big day with 206 total yards and 2 TD’s. RB Willis McGahee pitched in 58 yards and a TD while WR Derrick Mason had a very quiet one catch, three-yard day. After a 16-point week in Week Seven we told you that WR Javon Walker would disappear again and, right on cue, he did.

BILLS 16 @ DOLPHINS 25

Just when we think we have the Bills figured out, they play a horrible game like this one. Turnovers are deadly and the Bills had four of them on Sunday. That made Bills QB Trent Edwards ordinary but WR Lee Evans and RB Marshawn Lynch both had big days as predicted. We missed on Dolphins QB Chad Pennington who passed for 314 yards and a TD. Pennington is quietly having a good season and has some very easy games down the road. If he is available on your waiver wire, he is worth a pick up and start when the match up is right. After posting just 14 fantasy points on the season, WR Ted Ginn JR busted out with a seven catch, 175 yard day. He is worth picking up as well with the Broncos decimated secondary up next. Stats Sleeper WR Roscoe Parrish was a bust for the second week in a row. Bills WR Josh Reed did injure his ankle in this one though and is out indefinitely so this may help Parrish or could elevate WR James Hardy. Keep an eye on this situation moving forward.

CHIEFS 24 @ JETS 28

We posed the question “which Jets team will show up for this game” and it turned out to be the mediocre Jets team as they were behind with two minutes left to the lowly Chiefs. RB Thomas Jones lost a few touches to RB Leon Washington, one of which was a 60-yard TD run, but he still had 60 total yards and a TD. We cautioned to temper your expectations from the rest of the Jets and they all posted mediocre numbers. We said that Chiefs TE Tony Gonzalez would have a big day and he did with 79 yards and a TD. QB Tyler Thigpen and WR Dwayne Bowes both had a surprisingly good game in this one. This will be the exception rather than the norm for Thigpen down the road but Bowe continues to be a must start wide receiver, especially in PPR leagues.

CARDINALS 23 @ PANTHERS 27

The Cardinals put up a good fight in this one but, in the end, turnovers decided their fate. We forecasted mediocre numbers for the Cardinals but we took it on the chin from QB Kurt Warner, WR Larry Fitzgerald and especially WR Anquan Boldin who had a huge day in his first game back from injury. It’s safe to say that he’s a must-start the rest of the way. We didn’t expect much from the Cards running game and they totaled just 50 yards with 30 of them coming from Boldin on one carry. The Panthers meanwhile continue to roll on offense as QB Jake Delhomme and WR Steve Smith both had the big game we predicated. We didn’t expect the 123 total yards, 1 TD day from RB DeAngelo Williams, but RB Jonathan Stewart, as predicted, struggled with eight yards on ten carries.

BUCCANEERS 9 @ COWBOYS 13

This was an ugly game from the start to the finish as neither offense could get any momentum going. The Cowboys defense came up big against RB Earnest Graham and limited him to 64 total yards. We predicted modest numbers from everyone else in this game and that certainly held true. The Cowboys are not the same team without QB Tony Romo and until he is back under center, you can expect more mediocre stats lines for the Dallas stars. Need more evidence than what transpired this weekend? Consider that Ravens QB Flacco had more receiving yards (43) than Cowboys WR Terrell Owens (33). Be sure to check on the injury status of Super Stud TE Jason Witten prior to his Week Nine game. Witten left Sunday’s game early with a rib injury

REDSKINS 25 @ LIONS 17

The Lions had a half time lead in this one before reverting to their same old ways and are now 0-7 and are looking at becoming the first team to go 0-16 in NFL history. Try to find a spot on their schedule that you honestly think they can win. There isn’t one! RB Clinton Portis wasn’t exactly the stud we predicted but still had 133 total yards. As predicted, QB Jason Campbell, WR Santana Moss and TE Chris Cooley all produced big numbers. As forecasted, WR Calvin Johnson was the lone Lion to produce. Stats Sleeper, the Redskins defense had a mediocre game again this week and that will eventually be their downfall moving forward.

RAMS 16 @ PATRIOTS 23

The Rams put in a good effort for the third week in a row but fell short in this one ending their modest two game winning streak. RB Benjarvus Green-Ellis struggled with 16 yards on nine carries but did score a TD. RB Kevin Faulk did the damage however with 107 total yards and a TD. QB Matt Cassel had a decent day along with WR’s Randy Moss and Wes Welker. As predicted WR Donnie Avery had a huge game with 163 yards and a TD. QB Mark Bulger, as suggested, had his best game of the season with 301 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT.

FALCONS 14 @ EAGLES 27

The Falcons, on the road and as suggested, were no match for the Eagles who are now 10-0 coming off a bye under Head Coach Andy Reid. We suggested modest numbers from Falcons QB Matt Ryan and RB Michael Turner and both of them struggled in this one. WR Roddy White however had another huge game with 113 yards and 2 TD’s. He now ranks second amongst wide receivers in standard scoring Fantasy leagues. Eagles QB Donavan McNabb and RB Brian Westbrook both had a big game and WR DeSean Jackson posted a decent stat line in this one. Stats Sleeper Eagles TE L.J. Smith was on his way to a good game before being knocked out of the game with a concussion on a brutal hit from Falcons safety Lawyer Miloy.

BROWNS 23 @ JAGUARS 17

As we have said over and over, the Jaguars need to run the ball in order to have success. On Sunday, they attempted 42 passes to just 27 rushes and the result was another loss. Cleveland’s QB David Garrard did have 342 total yards and WR Matt Jones was surprise starter after he appealed his suspension for substance abuse and was allowed to play. Jones made the best of it with 117 yards and a TD. TE Marcedes Lewis saw his looks limited with Jones in the game and finished with just three catches for 34 yards. As predicted, Browns QB Derek Anderson and RB Jamal Lewis posted decent but not huge numbers. WR Braylon Edwards continues his habit of dropping balls and finished with just two catches for 64 yards. We still don’t trust anyone from the Browns and would not have them on our roster.

GIANTS 21 @ STEELERS 14

We had a tough time forecasting this game and cautioned; “The bottom-line to this game is to expect modest numbers from everyone involved.” This was certainly the case for everyone except RB Mewelde Moore who got another start for injured RB Willie Parker and posted 94 total yards and a TD. At the time of writing though we thought Parker would play and we also didn’t know WR Santonio Holmes would be inactive for a pot bust. As always, you need to check the in-actives on Sunday morning before setting your lineup.

Stats Sleeper

TE Heath Miller, had three catches for 53 yards. QB Big Ben was a Big Bust as he posted a 189 yard 1 TD and 4 INT day. We may owe the Giants an apology at some point but we aren’t ready to give it up just yet.

SEAHAWKS 34 @ 49ers 13

We said this one would be ugly and it turned out that way for the 49ers and for anyone who took the time to watch it. The Seahawks had their first 100-yard receiver of the year but who would have predicted it would be fullback Leonard Weaver who finished with 129 total yards and two touchdowns. We told you to stay away from the Seahawks running backs and they posted a combined 39 rush yards on 28 carries from five different players. That 1.39 per carry rush average has to be close to some kind of record for futility. RB Frank Gore had another solid outing for the hapless 49ers with 159 total yards but QB JT O’Sullivan and WR Issac Bruce were, as suggested, both busts. O’Sullivan was benched late in the first half in favor of QB Shaun Hill who produced 173 pass yards and a TD in the second half. It’s clearly going to be new Head Coach Mike Singletarys’ way or the highway moving forward in San Francisco. He not only benched J.T. but he also sent TE Vernon Davis to the looker room for an early shower.

Stats Sleeper

The 49ers DF/ST was a bust in this one.

BENGALS 6 @ TEXANS 35

This one certainly wasn’t brain surgery but we covered it like a blanket. QB Matt Schaub, RB Steve Slaton, WR Andre Johnson and TE Owen Daniels all had a big game. As we predicted, unlike Week Seven, the Texans kept the pedal to the metal once they got up in this one. As suggested, this was yet another game to sit any Bengal player that you may own. Stats Sleeper, Cedric Benson, had 69 total yards to lead all Bengal players. Yikes!

COLTS 21 @ TITANS 31

Apart from QB Kerry Collins attempting 37 passes, we could not have forecasted this game any better. Titans RB’s Chris Johnson and LenDale White both had a big game for the Titans and everyone else produced very mediocre Fantasy numbers. We cautioned that everyone from the Colts would have modest numbers other than TE Dallas Clark who had seven catches for 94 yards and 2 TD’s. Stats Sleeper, slot receiver Anthony Gonzalez, had a modest 4-catch 27-yard game.

As mentioned, it was another very solid week for us so let’s keep it rolling as we look at the Week Nine match-ups. There’s a lot of firepower sitting this weekend with the Panthers, Saints, Chargers and 49ers on their bye week so be sure you have other options available.

JETS (4-3) @ BILLS (5-2)

The Jets barely survived against the lowly Chiefs while the Bills committed four turnovers and lost to the Dolphins in Week Eight.

Fantasy owners were left wondering what happened to the players from both of these teams last weekend. Both of them had a decent match-up, especially the Jets, but both of them disappointed. The Bills will be forced to air it out in this weekend as they face a Jets defense that is ranked fourth against the run but a lowly 23rd against the pass. Look for QB Trent Edwards to bounce back after a disappointing week eight and that means WR Lee Evans is also in for a big day. The Bills have started using a RB by committee system on a more regular basis each week with Marshawn Lynch and Fred Jackson. That being said and even with the Jets run defense being so stout, you need to get Lynch in your lineup. His rush yards may be low this weekend but he’s a threat in the passing game and he’ll decent game in this one.

The Jets continue to be a frustration for Fantasy owners. Whether it’s inconsistent play from QB Brett Favre or the running back and wide receiver guessing game each week, this is a tough team to figure out. The Bills rank 13th in both pass and run defense but were shredded by QB Pennington in Week Eight. Favre will be his typical gunslinger self and if your league is lenient on interceptions feel confident starting him here. Other than Rams RB Steven Jackson, the Bills have not allowed and rusher over a 100 yards this season. We expect an arial shoot out in this one so temper your expectations of Jets RB Thomas Jones. WR’s Laveranues Coles and Jerricho Crothery will both be very active in this one and should be started.

LIONS (0-7) @ BEARS (4-3)

The Bears were on the bye while the Lions hung with the Redskins, but lost in Week Eight.

The Bears come out of their bye week in a first place tie with the Packers in the NFC North and are a perfect 2-0 in the division. The Bears offense has really come to life in the past three games scoring 102 points in that stretch. The Bears crushed the Lions 34 -7 in Week Five and we don’t see a much different result in this one. To the Lions credit, they continue to battle but are over matched most weeks. QB Kyle Orton started his recent hot streak against the Lions and he’s in line for another big day here. Look for another big day out WR Rashied and Daniel Hester as well as TE Greg Olsen. In the first meeting the Lions held the Bears running game in check but we expect RB Matt Forte to get back on track in this one.

The Lions have not been able to put together a complete game this season and going on the road to Chicago is not going to help. We hate to sound like a broken record but the only Lion you can trust in your starting lineup is WR Calvin Johnson. The Bears rank 29th against the pass, so CJ should light them up. The departure of WR Roy Williams to Dallas opened a spot for someone from the Lions to step up and fill the void, but neither WR Shaun McDonald or Mike Furrey have taken advantage of the opportunity. Furrey caught 6 balls in Week Seven and none in Week Wight. McDonald caught no balls in Week Seven but five in Week Eight. Of the two, expect a better game from McDonald this week. The Lions running game is a mess and it’s a guessing from week to week as to who will start and/or get the most touches. It’s best to avoid this situation all together.

Stats Sleeper

It can’t help anyone this week, but keep an eye on the NFL transactions. The Lions had QB Daunte Culpepper in for a work out this week and rumor has it he may sign with the club. If Culpepper is healthy and he does sign, it could be a boost for the slumping Cats. Culpepper has mobility and everyone knows what he accomplished with Randy Moss. He could do the same with Calvin Johnson and may be worth a late season pickup off the waiver wire. He did however leave Detroit without a contract.

JAGUARS (3-4) @ BENGALS (0-7)

The Jaguars lost to the Browns while the Texans in Week Eight hammered the Bengals.

The Jaguars don’t need to look any further than their coaching staff and their play calling to figure out why they are 3-4 and falling out of the playoff race. They are completely under-maned at wide receiver yet they called 42 pass plays to just 27 running plays in week eight. In each of the Jaguars four loses, they have had more passing plays than they’ve had running plays. Now they get the Bengals who are 28th in rushing defense. Do you think they will take advantage of it? They better or someone should be fired. Expect RB Maurice Jones-Drew to have a monster game here. QB David Garrard will post serviceable numbers and you can expect another solid outing from WR Matt Jones. This is also a good spot for TE Marcedes Lewis.

What? You still have Bengal players on your Fantasy roster? Good luck with that!

RAVENS (4-3) @ BROWNS (3-4)

The Ravens crushed the Raiders while the Browns held on to beat the Jaguars in Week Eight.

Just when it looked like the Steelers would run away hide with the AFC North title, the Ravens find themselves just a game back while the Browns are just two back. This game, while it may be ugly to watch, will be a serious battle. The Ravens have started to get serviceable QB play out Joe Flacco and continue to be strong rushing the ball while their defense holds their opponents of the scoreboard. Flacco is never a highly recommended QB and this week is no different as the Browns rank 10th versus the pass. The Ravens reverted to RB by committee last weekend as six different players had rushing attempts. RB Willis McGahee still led the team in carries though with 23 and you can expect more of the same this week. Expect a huge game from McGahee, but keep an eye on RB Ray Rice who continues to impress each time he touches the ball. You can’t trust any Ravens WR in this game and TE Todd Heap continues to be a colossal bust and should be avoided.

Browns QB Derek Anderson held off QB Brady Quinn for at least one more week with a serviceable though non-inspiring Week Eight and now faces the #3 ranked Ravens pass defense. This is not a good spot for Edwards and we suggest looking elsewhere for your starting QB. RB Jamal Lewis continues to put up solid numbers but he to is in tough this weekend as he faces the #1 ranked Ravens rushing defense. The Ravens have given up just one rushing TD, give up and average of 64.3 rush yards a game and limit ball carries to a 2.8 yards per carry average. You may not have a choice but to start Lewis but you need to temper your expectations big time. The receiving core will also struggle in this one so the bottom-line is sit down your Browns.

Stats Sleeper

TE Kellen Winslow will be reactivated for this game by the Browns. The Ravens will bring constant heat on Anderson and Winslow needs to reestablish himself as an elite TE. Look for a good game from the controversial TE.

BUCCANEERS (5-3) @ CHIEFS (1-6)

The Bucs lost a defensive battle to the Cowboys while the Chiefs lost in the final minutes to the Jets in Week Eight.

Tampa looked very ordinary and offensively inept in Dallas last weekend and look to rebound against the struggling Chiefs. It’s never easy to play in Arrowhead Stadium so this game should be a close one. The Chiefs are now ranked last in the NFL against the run and have given up an NFL high 14 rushing touchdowns. Make sure you get Bucs RB Earnest Graham going in this one. Bucs RB Warrick Dunn is suffering with a back injury and will probably sit this one out. That makes Graham an even more attractive start in this one. Despite the match up we can’t recommend anyone other than the Bucs DF/ST from Tampa in this one.

The Chiefs continue to battle despite their record and the antics of their “star” RB Larry Johnson who has been deactivated for the past two games. Whether he will play in this one or not has still not been determined. Even if he does, the Bucs still haven’t given up a rushing touchdown and that won’t change in this game. RB Kolby Smith may be the Chiefs starting running back for this one as Jamaal Charles suffered an ankle sprain against the Jets and is doubtful. The Bucs rank 7th against the pass, so this is a tough spot for QB Tyler Thigpen. He will make some plays just not enough to make an impact on your Fantasy team. Continue to start WR Dwayne Bowe and TE Tony Gonzalez but temper your expectations of both of them.

Stats Sleeper

Bucs WR Joey Galloway started last week and looked rusty catching three passes for 38 yards. An extra week of practice with QB Jeff Garcia should help his numbers improve this weekend.

TEXANS (3-4) @ VIKINGS (3-4)

The Texans crushed the Bengals while the Vikings were on a bye in Week Eight.

A few weeks back we said that the Texans were the best 1-4 team in football and they have run off three wins in a row. That’s currently the best streak in the NFL albeit against very inferior talent. Things get much tougher for the Texans from here on out. The Vikings on the other hand are trying to stay in the hunt for the NFC North title. This game should be a shootout.

The Vikings run stuffing defense will force the Texans to the air and the Texans certainly haven’t had any problems airing it out recently. The Vikings rank 20th against the pass and were burned continuously by the Bears in Week Seven. This is another good spot for Texans QB Matt Schaub, WR Andre Johnson and TE Owen Daniels. The Vikings will try to double cover AJ so this is also a good start for WR Kevin Walter who has come on strong since the injury to WR Andre Davis. Rookie RB Steve Slaton has tailed off some as of late and faces his toughest challenge of the year against the Vikings run defense. Temper your expectations of the rookie in this one and if you are three deep at RB, consider another option.

The Vikings will be able to run on the Texans defense that ranks 21st and has given up 11 rushing touchdowns so RB Adrian Peterson is in for a big week. We still consider him a bust but he will post a monster day on Sunday. The Texans have been decent against the pass ranking 16th overall. With AP running wild, the Vikings shouldn’t need to pass much in this game but WR Bernard Berrian has been hot of late so you will want to get him into your lineup.

Stats Sleeper

If the Texans try to double cover Berrian, WR Bobby Wade could have a bust out game here as he tries to hold off WR Sidney Rice who is trying to get back after a lengthy rehab of his injured knee and is trying to gain the #2 WR spot for the Vikings.

CARDINALS (4-3) @ RAMS (2-5)

The Cardinals let one slip away with costly turnovers in Carolina while the Rams hung tough with the Patriots but lost in Week Eight.

This is another game that will be a high scoring, shootout this weekend. Cards QB Kurt Warner returns to his old stomping grounds and you know he wants to hang a bunch on his former team. Both of these teams rank in the lower half of pass defense and have given up a combined 24 touchdowns through the air. This has the makings of a 35-31 game. Surprisingly, with a win, the Rams can move to within a game of first place in the lowly NFC West after a 0-4 start to their season.

It’s not rocket science to say that both teams will air it out early and often in this one. Start your stars from both teams in this one and then sit back and watch the Fantasy points roll in. The Rams are hoping to have a RB Steven Jackson back for this one but, at the time of writing this, he is still listed as 50/50 and day-to-day. The Cards have been decent against the run allowing an average of just 96 yards a game and five TD’s so we would recommend looking elsewhere for a RB if Jackson can’t go.

Stats Sleeper

When the Cards do rush the ball, which won’t be often, expect rookie RB Tim Hightower to see an expanded roll in this one. He’s already a vulture of goal line touchdowns and RB Edgerrin James has tailed off considerably as of late.

PACKERS (4-3) @ TITANS (7-0)

The Packers were on a bye while the Titans ran over the Colts on MNF in Week Eight.

The Titans remain the leagues lone undefeated team but face a tough match up against the Packers on a short week of rest. The short week has been unusually kind to teams coming off a win on MNF this season. So far this season the Browns are the only team to lose after a MNF win. The Titans are playing back-to-back homes games so the short rest will have less of an affect on them.

The Titans continue to win behind a stellar defense and a strong one-two punch at running back. They will need a strong running game in this one as the Packers are ranked 6th against the pass but just 25th against the run. Titans RB’s Chris Johnson and LenDale White will be a solid start in this one but we can’t recommend any Titan past them. We also suggest lowering your expectations of the Titans DF/ST in this one as well.

The Packers will need a strong passing game if they stand a chance in this one. The Titans pass defense still ranks 4th but gave up two TD’s to Manning & Co. last week. The week of rest and extra time to game plan should help the Packers in this one. Packers QB Aaron Rodgers has 12 TD’s to just four INT’s and we expect the Packers to air it out in this one. Start Rodgers and WR Greg Jennings with confidence. We have a hard time recommending RB Ryan Grant in this one. He did have a solid outing in Week Seven, but that was against the Colts and this is the Titans, so you need temper your expectations of him in this one.

Stats Sleeper

After giving up two touchdowns to Colts TE Dallas Clark last week, this is a nice spot for the Packers under-achieving TE Donald Lee.

DOLPHINS (3-4) @ BRONCOS (4-3)

The Broncos had a bye to lick their wounds from the Week Seven MNF loss to the Patriots while the Dolphins smothered the Bills in Week Seven.

This is a battle of teams seemingly headed in opposite directions. The Dolphins continue to improve while the Broncos continue to deteriorate. The Broncos have given up more points than they have scored (173-195) yet somehow still lead the AFC West. Don’t let their record fool you though as in actuality they should be 2-5 at best.

The Dolphins pose a serious threat to the defensively challenged Broncos who rank 30th against the pass and 28th against the rush. Fins QB Chad Pennington has settled in nicely in Miami and is a very good play in this one. An even better play is Miami RB Ronnie Brown who, after a couple of quiet weeks, should bust out huge in this one. A different player leads the Dolphins in receiving yards every week so it’s a tough call on whom it will be this week. Look for the Broncos to use what is left of their CB’s to cover WR Ted Ginn JR, which will leave WR Greg Camario and TE Anthony Fasano up against…no one??

The odds makers in Vegas are expecting a shootout in this one and have put the over/under at a whopping 49 points. The Dolphins have been good at stopping the run so the flavor of the day running back for Denver will struggle in this one. Look for QB Jay Cutler, WR Brandon Marshall and WR Eddie Royal to post good numbers against the Dolphins 25th rank pass defense. Keep an eye on the status of Broncos TE Tony Scheffler. He hasn’t played in two weeks but is back practicing and, if activated, is a good play here.

Stats Sleeper

Denver rookie RB Ryan Torain has not played since breaking his elbow in preseason. The Broncos must like this kid because most teams would put a rookie who has missed the first half of the season on injured reserve. They didn’t and with RB Selvin Young injured, RB Andrea Hall unable to hold onto the ball and 33-year-old RB Michael Pittman nursing sore ribs; it could be time for the Broncos to trot out their “next one” in this game. Even if they don’t, keep an eye on Torain as we all know Denver is RB University.

COWBOYS (5-3) @ GIANTS (6-1)

The Cowboys survived against the Bucs while the Giants were an interception machine and came from behind to beat the Steelers in Week Eight.

With QB Tony Romo still sidelined this game has certainly lost some of its premiere game status and it could get ugly for QB Brad Johnson and the Cowboys very quickly.

After the embarrassing loss to the Browns on MNF the Giants have won two in a row by a combined 50-31 and we expect that to continue in this one. The Cowboys played inspired defense against the offensively challenged Bucs last weekend but now face the Giants #1 ranked rushing offense and their trio of backs. Look for RB Brandon Jacobs to rebound in this game after a subpar outing in Week Eight. The Cowboys have major issues in their secondary and that bodes well for QB Eli Manning to have a serviceable game with numerous hookups to WR Plaxico Burress. Burress was benched for the first quarter last week but should be no match for the Cowboys secondary. TE Kevin Boss caught a TD last week but should have had two. Look for him to get another TD in this game.

The Cowboys are very one dimensional with the lose of QB Romo and it shows as they have scored just 23 points in two games with QB Brad Johnson under center. The Giants rank 6th against the rush, so this will be another tough outing for RB Marion Barber III. You can’t sit him down ever but don’t expect much here. The Cowboys receiving core is very ordinary without Romo and the heat on Johnson will make them all very infective in this game. TE Jason Witten has said he will play with a broken rib but how long he can play is anyones guess making him a risky start in this one. Expect all the Cowboys to struggle in this one.

Stats Sleeper

We think the Giants are going to hang one on the Cowboys here. If the Cowboys weak secondary pays too much attention to Burress, look for QB Manning to burn them with WR Steve Smith.

FALCONS (4-3) @ RAIDERS (2-5)

The Falcons lost on the road to the Eagles while the Ravens in Week Eight crushed the Raiders on the road.

As good as this match up looks on paper it won’t be easy for the Falcons in the “Black Hole” as they are one of the worst road teams in the NFL. A victory for the Falcons will be largely dependent on a good rushing day out RB Michael Turner who has been quiet the past couple of weeks. The Raiders rank 26th against the run but have only allowed LT2 and Jets RB Thomas Jones to rush for over 90 yards against them. Turner will get his yards in this one but expecting a monster day out of him is expecting a bit too much. QB Matt Ryan continues to shine in his rookie season and has hooked up with WR Roddy White for 5 touchdowns on the season. The Raiders have a shutdown corner in Nnamdi Asomugha so temper your expectations of WR White.

The Raiders are still horrible on offense but they are working on turning it around. They do catch a bit of a break here as the Falcons rank 23rd against the rush and 24th against the pass. RB Just Fargas will start for the Raiders as rookie RB Darren McFadden is now dealing with a turf toe injury on both feet. The Raiders will want to control the clock so expect heavy doses of Fargas and a good day out him. QB JaMarcus Russell is still struggling at the helm for the Raiders but he’s posted some serviceable numbers fantasy wise the last two weeks. This is a decent spot for him but he should still not be considered as anything more than a low end QB2.

Stats Sleeper

At 6′ 4″ Raiders rookie WR Chaz Schilens is getting his chances and is a big target for Russell. He may just what’s needed to jump start Russell and make defenses respect the Raiders passing game to open up their running game. This big WR is worth keeping an eye on and a flier this weekend against the Falcons.

EAGLES (4-3) @ SEAHAWKS (2-5)

The Eagles defeated the Falcons while the Seahawks embarrassed the 49ers in Week Eight.

The Eagles looked very impressive against the Falcons coming off their bye week last week. QB Donavan McNabb had all his weapons back and it showed. Look for the Eagles to continue to roll on the road against a woeful Seahawks team. QB McNabb, RB Brian Westbrook and WR DeSean Jackson are all in line for a big day here. The Seahawks are 30th against the pass and 22nd against the rush. Just as he had gotten healthy, Eagles TE L.J. Smith suffered a concussion in Week Eight and is not expected to dress against the Seahawks.

Despite scoring 34 points last week, the Seahawks are still brutal and will have Seneca Wallace at QB again this week. The Eagles are 9th against the rush and 12th against the pass. It will be a long day for the Seahawks and we can’t recommend any of them in this game. The Eagles will blitz early and often in this one. Don’t be fooled by the big day out of FB Leonard Weaver last week he won’t have another one like ever again.

Stats Sleeper

The Eagles DF/ST has not had a big day, Fantasy points wise, since Week Three. They will be huge in this one.

PATRIOTS (5-2) @ COLTS (3-4)

The Patriots escaped with a win over the Rams at home while the Titans on the road in Week Eight buried the Colts in the forth quarter.

What has been a battle of AFC powerhouses the past several years is now just another game on the schedule this year. The Colts have slipped below .500 and the Patriots are doing just enough to win games with backup QB Matt Cassel.

The Patriots are banged up on both sides of the ball but continue to win. Don’t expect either Patriot RB Sammy Morris or LaMont Jordan back this week. That means another week of guessing who will get more touches between RB Benjarvus Green-Ellis and Kevin Faulk. It was Faulk who led the Patriots last week and we expect more of the same this week against the suspect Colts rush defense. The Colts expect All Pro strong safety Bob Sanders back for this one and that will help the Colts defense. How healthy he is and how much he will help is still a question mark. QB Matt Cassel continues to be a good game manager and the Colts rank second in pass defense but they are now hurting in their secondary.

Expect a typical 250-pass yard and one or two TD day out of Cassel. The Colts lost their best cover corner Marlin Jackson to injured reserve this week and his replacement is 5-foot-8 Tim Jennings. If Jennings is assigned to cover WR Randy Moss, that’s a huge mismatch. The Colts have given up just two passing touchdowns all season but the loss of Jackson will hurt and makes Moss a much better play this weekend. If the Colts roll returning CB Kelvin Hayden (6-foot-0) over to cover Moss then WR Wes Welker gets Jennings in coverage and that makes him a strong start. The TE position is virtually invisible in New England. Being as such, TE Ben Watson can’t be trusted as a starting Fantasy TE.

The Colts looked good through two quarters on MNF but struggled in the second half and look like a very mediocre football team overall. QB Peyton Manning continues to struggle and has passed for just 10 touchdowns with 9 interceptions so far this season. The Patriots have given up 11 touchdowns through the air on the season and they are hurting at safety. If Manning is going to get it going this is a good spot for him to start. Expect a good game from Manning in this one. Who will be the recipient of the good game by Manning is up in the air at this point. WR Reggie Wayne missed practice for a second straight day and is now a question mark for this game. Look for WR’s Marvin Harrison and Anthony Gonzalez to be very active in this one.

The Colts are expecting injured RB Joseph Addai back for this game as he participated in full practice this week. He is however a risky play as he will share carries with RB Dominic Rhodes. Rhodes has filled in admirably during the time Addai has been on the shelf so don’t expect him to just disappear into obscurity. We expect Rhodes and Addai will split touches in the 40/60 range. TE Dallas Clark is coming off a 94 yard 2 TD game, is fully healthy and has returned to a must-start status TE.

STEELERS (5-2) @ REDSKINS (6-2)

The Steelers handed a win to the Giants with turnovers while the Redskins had to rally to beat the lowly Lions in Week Eight. Neither of these teams looked very impressive last week and this match up is hard to forecast. The Steelers are #1 in the league against the pass and rank #3 against the run. The Redskins rank 5th against the run and are 11th against the pass.

The Steelers say they will have RB Willie Parker back for this game but they have said that for the past two weeks. We expect him to play this weekend but he won’t get the full load. Much like Rhodes has done in Indy, RB Mewelde Moore has excelled while filling in for Parker. This tandem will most likely share touches 50/50 in this one making them both risky starting options. You need to temper your expectations of both of them. QB Big Ben is still nursing a sore shoulder but will start on MNF. The Redskins will be without DE Jason Taylor and CB Shawn Springs so we expect Big Ben to bounce back from his horrible Week Eight performance.

Steelers WR Santonio Holmes was inactive in Week Eight because of a pot bust but will start in this one. His absence allowed the Giants to smoother WR Hines Ward so his return is a boost for the Steelers offense. Both Holmes and Ward will have decent stat lines against the Redskins banged up secondary. Steelers TE Heath Miller is over due for a bust out game and this could be the spot. Ward and Holmes will stretch the field and the Redskins will also have to respect the Steelers running game leaving space in the middle for Miller.

After three weeks of playing inferior defenses, the Redskins have a major challenge against the Steelers. Redskins QB Jason Campbell is the only starting QB in the league who has yet to throw an interception. That streak is in serious jeopardy against the Steelers top rated pass defense. If Campbell is your starting QB you need to curb your enthusiasm in this one. Clinton Portis is the leading rusher in the NFL with 260 more rush yards than AP who is second. That’s the good news.

The bad news is Portis has not practiced all week while he deals with an ankle injury and he now faces the Steelers run D that has yielded just three rushing touchdowns all season. The Steelers held Giants beast RB Brandon Jacobs in check last and we expect they will do the same to Portis. With the game being played on Monday night and Portis being a game time decision, you may want to look at other options if you have them. It’s tough to sit the leagues leading rusher but something out of someone will be better than nothing out of Portis.

The Redskins also have the top WR in Fantasy football in Santana Moss but he to has been held out of practice all week while dealing with a hamstring injury. The same goes for Moss as with Portis as far as both being game time decisions and wanting to get something rather than nothing. WR Antwann Randle El faces his former team on MNF but is nothing more than a low-end #2 fantasy receiver. Redskins TE Chris Cooley should benefit the most with the injuries to Portis and Moss so you want to make sure he is active for this one.

That’s it for Week Nine. As always, we hope your week is injury free and point prosperous!

Email the StatsGuru at info–@–footballstatsguru.com (remove the dashes) with roster questions or concerns.

Enjoy The Games Everyone!

StatsGuru

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Beasts and Busts - Week Eight NFL Projections http://www.footballstatsguru.com/archives/2008/10/24/week-eight-nfl-projections/ http://www.footballstatsguru.com/archives/2008/10/24/week-eight-nfl-projections/#comments Fri, 24 Oct 2008 21:33:55 +0000 adminnadia http://www.footballstatsguru.com/?p=293 Bills' RB Marshawn Lynch (23) runs against the Chargers

Bills' RB Marshawn Lynch (23) runs against the Chargers on Sunday, Oct. 19, 2008. The Bills won 23-14. (Photo Credit: David Duprey/AP of Chargers.com)

StatsGuru had another very solid and successful week in Week Seven. Let’s do a quick review of our Week Seven forecasts before moving on to Week Eight.

CHARGERS 16 @ BILLS 23

In one of three games that featured teams traveling from the West to the East (all the West coast teams lost, again) we were perfect in our forecasts of Bills QB Trent Edwards WR Lee Evans along with RB Marshawn Lynch. They all posted big Fantasy numbers. We were also correct in suggesting that the Chargers would struggle in this game and they were horrible. We did miss in our thinking that LT2 would have a big game, but how can you sit this guy? WR Roscoe Parrish was a disappointment as Stats Sleeper.

STEELERS 38 @ BENGALS 10

RB Mewelde Moore got the start and, as predicted, was huge in this game with 135 total yards and three touchdowns. We suggested the Steelers wouldn’t need to pass in this game but they went to the air 28 times and QB Big Ben had a huge day. The Steelers DF/ST disappointed as Stats Sleeper. As predicted, with QB Ryan Fitzgerald under center, the Bengals continue to be a very bad football team and are not producing any Fantasy stats of any substance.

TITANS 34 @ CHIEFS 10

As predicted, the Titans didn’t look past the Chiefs with a showdown against the Colts looming in Week 8. RB Chris Johnson and RB LenDale White both had huge games. We said the Titans wouldn’t need much of a passing game in this one and they didn’t. TE Tony Gonzalez did manage 97 yards on six catches but the Titans have still not allowed a passing TD. Other than Gonzo, the rest of the Chiefs were horrible. If, for some reason, you have QB Brodie Croyle on your roster you can cut him loose as a knee injury has ended his season. TE Bo Scaife had just three catches for 48 yards and Stats Sleeper WR Justin Gage was held without a catch for the Titans.

RAVENS 27 @ DOLPHINS 13

We missed on RB Ronnie Brown in this one as the Ravens showed why they have the number one ranked defense in the league. Brown and the rest of the Dolphins couldn’t get anything going in this one. We also missed Ravens RB Willis McGahees’ big day as he had 152 total yards and one TD. McGahee was a force and looks to have taken back the undisputed lead rusher role for the Ravens.

SAINTS 30 @ PANTHERS 7

As suggested QB Jake Delhomme and WR Steve Smith both had a big day against the Saints passing defense. RB DeAngelo Williams had 70 total yards and a TD. We suggested the Saints would struggle on the road in this one and they did. RB Reggie Bush re-aggravated his knee injury and left the game. He is expected to miss at least two games and possibly more. With Bush out and the Saints way behind in the game, Stats Sleeper RB Deuce McAllister managed just 53 total yards and did not score.

VIKINGS 41 @ BEARS 48

That is not a typo, the final in this one was 48-41. Even though both teams try to boast that they have a strong defense, we predicted big numbers in this game and that was certainly the case. We did miss on RB Adrian Peterson who finally showed up and had a huge game. TE Visanthe Shiancoe also came to life in this one but remains a hit or miss option for the struggling Vikings.

49ers 17 @ GIANTS 29

As suggested, the Giants were not in a good mood after their Monday night loss and they took it out on the 49ers. RB Brandon Jacobs had a monster day with 75 total yards and two touchdowns. WR Plaxico Burress had a decent day with three catches for 23 yards and a TD. QB Eli Manning had a pedestrian day as we suggested. The 49ers continue to free fall and we were correct in suggesting that you avoid starting any of them. Stats Sleeper WR Steve Smith didn’t have a huge game but did catch a team high four passes for 39 yards.

COWBOYS 14 @ RAMS 34

That’s not a typo either as the Rams punished the Cowboys who are swirling in turmoil.
We suggested a big game for RB Marion Barber and TE Jason Witten. Barber had 113 total yards and a TD but Witten had a disappointing six catch 44 yard day. All other Cowboys, as suggested, had a mediocre day. We told you to start RB Steven Jackson for the Rams and he produced a huge stat line with 176 totals yards and three rushing TD’s. Stats Sleeper WR Donnie Avery had a big day with 5 catches for 65 yards and a TD. As suggested, no other Ram produced in this game.

LIONS 21 @ TEXANS 28

We suggested that this one would get ugly fast and it did as the Texans raced out to 21-3 half time lead. They took their foot off the gas in the second half however and almost lost the game. As suggested, QB Matt Schaub, RB Steve Slaton, WR Andre Johnson and TE Daniel Owens all had big days. We cautioned that Lions WR Calvin Johnson might have a mediocre day but we did say to start him and one 96 yard TD pass play made him huge. Stats Sleeper RB Rudi Johnson had just six carries and a disappointing day. The Lions appear to have continued confidence in rookie RB Kevin Smith. Despite a lingering shoulder injury Smith had 68 total yards and a TD. Injury reports continue to be a confusing issue in the NFL this season and can’t be trusted.

COLTS 14 @ PACKERS 34

We thought this would be a shootout and the while the Packers produced 34 points, the Colts struggled and managed just 14. We suggested that RB Dominic Rhodes and RB Ryan Grant would both have big days and they did. Rhodes had 114 total yards and 2 TD’s while Grant had 117 total yards and a TD. We were wrong about WR’s Reggie Wayne and Greg Jennings as both had very sub-par outings as did QB Peyton Manning. QB Aaron Rodgers produced a decent 186 pass yard and 1 TD day. This was the best game of the year for the Packers DF/ST.

JETS 13 @ RAIDERS 16 (OT)

Other than suggesting a big game for RB Thomas Jones (156 rushing yards) and cautioning that the Jets don’t travel well, we missed on this one entirely. Welcome back WR Javon Walker (5 catches 75 yards and 1 TD), do you plan on staying for awhile? Somehow we doubt it. This was an ugly game!

BROWNS 11 @ REDSKINS 14

This was an equally ugly game as it was 0-0 at the half. As suggested, the Redskins did pull back some and called just 23 passing plays. They put the ball in the hands of their stud RB Clinton Portis and he responded with a monster 28 touch, 183 total yard one TD day. We recommended that you temper your expectations of TE Chris Cooley and he had a mediocre four catch 32 yard day. QB Derek Anderson along with all the Browns game back to earth in this one. Stats Sleeper WR Donte’ Stallworth was a bust despite the fact that we said WR Braylon Edwards would have a quiet day, which he did.

SEAHAWKS 10 @ BUCCANEERS 20

Don’t let the final score of this game fool you. The Seahawks were never in this game. RB Earnest Graham had a decent 52 yard 1 TD day. QB Jeff Garcia now appears to have a firm grasp on the starting role in Tampa after passing for 310 yards and 1 TD. He will be a serviceable low-end QB1 moving forward. WR Antonio Bryant continues to be hit or miss. He has two games this year with a total of 253 yards and a TD and has 153 yards with no TD’s in the other five.

BRONCOS 7 @ PATRIOTS 41

Turnovers and injuries were the story of the MNF game as players were dropping like flies and Denver couldn’t hold on to the ball. QB Jay Cutler hurt a finger on his throwing hand and that made him and WR Brandon Marshall both busts in this one. Other than that we were perfect on this game. QB Matt Cassel, WR Randy Moss and RB Sammy Morris (in just a half of play before an injury) all had a huge game. Stats Sleeper WR Eddie Royal posted a decent nine catch 71 yard game for the Broncos.

As mentioned, it was another very good week of forecasting for StatsGuru so let’s keep it rolling as we move on to Week Eight!

There are four teams on their bye this week including the Bears, Vikings, Packers and Broncos. This was a scheduled bye for the Bengals and Texans but due to Hurricane Ike, they will play each other this weekend in Houston.

CHARGERS (3-4) @ SAINTS (3-4) (Game is being played in London England)

The Chargers lost on the road in Buffalo while the Saints were blown out by the Panthers in Week Seven.

Both teams come off a brutal loss, are desperate for a win and now head across the pond for a matchup in Wembley Stadium. We understand the NFL wants to be global but this game site, at this point in the season, makes no sense at all and is detrimental to both of these teams.

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