New York Giants 08-09 Season Forecast
Monday, July 21st, 2008
Open Camp @ Albany NY July 24th (Rookies/Veterans).
It’s been 168 days and StatsGuru is still having a tough time saying that the New York Football Giants are the Super Bowl XLII Champions. Really, come on, after they started 0-2 people were calling for Tom Couglin’s head on a platter. They were 14th in average points scored per game (23.3) 16th in total yards per game (331.4) and 21st in pass yards per game (197.1) Eli threw 23 TD and 20 INT over 16 games. Jacobs was the lead rusher (1,009 RYD) and Burress caught the most pass yards (1,025 PYD). Not exactly the numbers posted by past SB Champions. So was it smoke and mirrors with some luck mixed in or are the Giants the real deal? Everyone has their own opinion but StatsGuru would be surprised to see them back in the playoffs in ‘08. OK, let’s put the past in the past and take a Fantasy perspective look at the Giants.
Coaching: Tom Couglin was being mentioned as a possible first coaching casualty in ‘07 after the Giants started 0-2. That all changed when the Giants won their next six games, went on to win the SB and Couglin now has a new four year, $21 million contract. If Brett Favre stays retired, both his and Dan Marino’s last games would be losses to a Couglin coached team. (Marino and the Dolphins lost 62-7 to the Couglin coached Jaguars in the 2000 AFC playoffs). Kevin Gilbride enters his second full season as the Giants Offensive Coordinator. Gilbride, as Quarterbacks Coach, has been instrumental in the development of Eli Manning and the resurgence of the Giants offense. Steve Spagnuolo also enters his second season with the Giants as the Defensive Coordinator. The Giants D is one of the primary reasons the Giants are the SB Champions. Spagnuolu’s defensive game plan in the SB resulted in Tom Brady being sacked five times and knocked down a dozen more times. The Patriots had 274 offensive yards in the SB, which was 127 yards below their ‘07 season average.
Stats Slant: This is one of the most talented and experienced coaching staffs in the entire league.
Quarterback: Eli Manning enters his 5th season as the Giants QB and his 4th as the uncontested starter. Even though he has joined his brother Peyton as a SB winning QB, he is still nowhere near being a proficient Fantasy QB. In 55 career starts Eli has passed for 77 TD and 64 INT. Those are not numbers that you want or need out of your starting Fantasy QB. The Giants are also a run first team and that is never good for a Fantasy QB.
Stats Slant: After winning the Super Bowl (especially after leading the Giants on two fourth quarter scoring drives) many pundits are saying Eli has turned the corner. We don’t buy that from a Fantasy perspective and see Manning as no better than a high-end #2 QB. He will go off the board in the middle of most drafts.
Running Back: The Giants are certainly a run first team as they count on Manning to manage rather than win games. From a Fantasy perspective however, the Giants RB core is a nightmare. Brandon Jacobs leads the RB committee in NY but has yet to show he has the durability to be a starting, every down back. Jacobs missed five games in ‘07 with knee and wrist injuries. Derrick Ward had a good year coming off the bench but is recovering from a broken leg. He will battle Ahmad Bradshaw for the backup role. Bradshaw spent some of his off-season in jail (30 days) for a probation violation after leading the Giants in playoff rushing. The league has not indicated if he will miss time due to suspension. Reuben Droughns is still in the mix, but may not make the team.
Stats Slant: RB by committee and RB’s who can’t stay healthy are not a good mix for Fantasy success. We would rather stay away from this group all together. That being said, Jacobs is the starter as long as he stays healthy and should be considered as a mid-range #2 RB. You need to watch the preseason to see who surfaces as the handcuff between Ward and Bradshaw. If healthy, Ward appears to be the front-runner.
Wide Receiver: There aren’t many teams that have a WR by committee system but that seems to be the case in NY as we enter the ‘08 season. Plaxico Burress leads this group and gets the majority of the looks from Manning. Burress did have a decent year in ‘07 (70 C 1,025 PYD 12 TD) but you don’t get consistency out of Plax. Five of his twelve TD’s came in Week 1 (3) and Week 17 (2). Amani Toomer enters his tenth season with the Giants and should start opposite Burress. SB hero David Tyree (part of possibly the best play ever in a SB), Steve Smith, Sinorice Rice and rookie Mario Manningham are all in the mix at WR for the Giants.
Stats Slant: Burress is looking for a new contract and though unhappy, he has said he will show up for camp. One has to wonder why NFL contracts are not respected so often. Plax has a deal that runs through 2010. We don’t see the contract squabble being an issue. Select Burress as a high-end #2 WR late in the second run of WR’s. Smith could push Toomer to start opposite Burress but no other Giant WR should be selected in the top 60.
Tight End: As we are writing this, FOXSports.com is reporting that the Giants have traded Jeremy Shockey to the Saints for a second and fifth round draft pick in ‘09. You had to know that Shockey was not going to be a part of the Giants plans in ‘08. The Saints have been trying to get Shockey since February and Payton was his Offensive Coordinator during his rookie season (74 C 894 PYD 2 TD). This is a Giants blog but Shockey will have an immediate impact in New Orleans. If he is fully recovered from his broken leg, look for him to post some monster numbers as a pass catching TE for the Saints. So, meet the new Boss, who’s not the same as the old Boss. Kevin Boss will enter his second season with the Giants and will assume the starting role. At 6′ 6″ and 253 Boss has the size and athleticism to be an every-down NFL TE. Darcy Jackson and Michael Mathews will battle for the backup role.
Stats Slant: The main reason Shockey is out of NY is because he wanted more passes and less blocking duties. Couglin rules with an iron fist and it’s his way or the highway in NY. Boss will block more than he catches in the Giants offense and will need at least another year to develop into a quality, starting NFL TE. Take Boss as a high-end #2 TE and use him as a decent bye week replacement.
Place Kicker: Lawrence Tynes enters his second season with the Giants and fifth overall (KC). Tynes went from almost being cut halfway through the season to signing a five-year, $7 million contract (2/11/08). That is quite a turnaround for a guy who kicked a mediocre 23 of 27 FG and 40 of 42 XP in ‘07. In five years Tynes has missed on 23 FGA.
Stats Slant: Stay away from Tynes in all draft formats. He’s not a reliable PK and at best should be considered as a waiver wire, bye week replacement only.
Defense/Special Teams: The Giants defense lost DE Michael Strahan to retirement but will get LB Mathias Kiwanuka back from a broken leg injury. The Giants led the league in sacks with 52, though 12 of them came in Week 4 against the Eagles. Strahan had nine sacks in ‘07 and someone needs to step up and replace him. The Giants lost FS Gibril Wilson to the Raiders and drafted Kenny Phillips with the 31st overall pick in the ‘08 NFL Draft.
Stats Slant: The Giants will be hard pressed to record the same sack numbers but will still be a solid, low-end #1 starting DF/ST. Expect them to go off the board during the second DF/ST run.
Red Flag: A Super Bowl hangover, key injuries at the RB position and several key losses on the D are causes for concern as the Giants open camp.
Keep a pre-season eye on: The health of the Giants RB group. Watch the maturity level and transition of rookie WR Mario Manningham (RD 3 P 32 63rd overall) to the NFL style of play.
Stats Sleeper: Now that Shockey is gone, Boss could step up and have a decent year at TE. Manningham was very productive during his career at Michigan but may need a year or two of seasoning in the NFL.
2008 Strength Of Schedule: 11th of 32
Last Word: We would be surprised if any Giants player was a top ten Fantasy producer, at any position, in ‘08. If the Giants are going to have a top ten at any position, it will most likely come from their DF/ST but even that could be a stretch.
Up Next: NY Jets On Deck: Oakland Raiders In The Hole: Philadelphia Eagles
Photo Source : http://deadspin.com/sports/nfl/brandon-jacobs-is-not-impressed-with-the-titans-217365.php