Jacksonville Jaguars 08-09 Season Forecast
Friday, July 11th, 2008
On November 30, 1993 after a tumultuous bidding process and facing stiff competition (St. Louis, Cleveland, Baltimore and Tennessee) an ownership group lead by J. Wayne Weaver was awarded the NFL’s 30th franchise and made Jacksonville their home. From Day One Jaguar players made an impact on Fantasy Football. QB Mark Brunell, RB James Stewart and WR Jimmy Smith were all on the Week One roster when the Jaguars began play in September ‘95. The Jaguars have been one of the most successful startup franchises in NFL history. After a 4-12 start in 1995, the Jags made the playoffs in the next four consecutive seasons. They have made the playoffs in six of their thirteen seasons and boast an overall record of 118-101 (5-6 playoffs). Let’s take a look at the ‘08 Cats from the largest city (land mass) in the Sunshine State. Be forewarned, we don’t see it being pretty.
Coaching: The Jaguars have had two Head Coaches in their thirteen seasons. In 2003 former Vikings star LB Jack Del Rio took the reigns from the Jags first ever Head Coach Tom Coughlin (’95-’02). Under Del Rio the Jaguars regular season record is 45-35 including 12-4 in ‘05 and 11-5 in ‘07. Del Rio is as bright and tough as they come. In his rookie season Del Rio brought a huge tree stump, impaled with an axe, into the team locker room. The message on the stump, “Keep Chopping Wood” became the Jags Mantra. The Jaguars punter and stump story is legendary. Look for it in our weird and wacky NFL moments as we sprinkle them through our ‘08 blogs. Del Rio was the Linebackers Coach of the Ravens Super Bowl XXXV Championship team. He’s good! Dirk Koetter enters his second season as the Offensive Coordinator of the Jaguars. Our research doesn’t really reveal any reasons why he is so lucky to have this job. Gregg Williams is entering his first season as the Jaguars Defensive Coordinator. Williams is widely known as having a bright defensive mind and has 18 years of NFL coaching experience
Stats Slant: This is Del Rio’s team and he makes everyone around him better. StatsGuru likes Del Rio for many reasons, not the least of which is the fact that he looks damn good in a SUIT on the sidelines. Bill Belichick should get the number for Jack’s tailor.
Quarterback: Armed with a new contract worth $60 Million over the next six years, David Garrard returns to the Jaguars for his sixth year and second as the starter (’02 Draft RD 4 108 OA). Garrard has been through a lot with the Jags including the drafting of QB Byron Leftwich seventh overall in the first round of the 2003 NFL Draft. Garrard quietly guided the Jags to their 11-5 record in ‘07 (2,509 PYD 18 PTD 3 INT 185 RYD 1 TD) He will be backed up and unchallenged by either Cleo Lemon or Todd Bouman.
Stats Slant: The three INT’s jump out as the most impressive number Garrard posted in ‘07. The Jaguars are a run first team and have lacked support at WR since Jimmy Smith retired. If you believe in a platoon style QB rotation as a Fantasy owner, get Garrard and someone like Cutler from Denver. You will have choices to make but you should be able to find a decent match-up each weekend. Rank Garrard as a #2 QB who will go off the board as the 13th to 16th QB selected in most drafts.
Running Back: The Jaguars could be the ultimate “RB by Committee” team in the league. In ‘06 Fred Taylor (231 RA) and Maurice Jones-Drew (166 RA) combined for 397 rush attempts. In the ‘07 season they combined for 223 and 167 respectively for a total of 390 attempts. Fast Freddie is getting up there in age at 32 and Jones-Drew is now the Jags #1 RB.
Stats Slant: It is hard to recommend either of these guys as anything more than a mid range #2 RB. Grab Jones-Drew as he falls to you based on his age and ball catching ability. Be warned that Taylor could steal the spotlight in six or seven games. Better yet, avoid this situation if you can.
Wide Receiver: You have to go pretty far down on any of the many projection lists out there before you find the name of a Jaguars receiver. Once you reach one, at an average ranking of 38th, you find Jerry Porter. What have you done for us lately Jerry? Porter has averaged 35 C 492 PYD 3.75 TD over his eight years, all with the Raiders. This isn’t your Rice style Jerry. Reggie Williams and Troy Williamson will “compete” to start opposite Porter. Once promising WR Matt Jones was just charged with a felony cocaine possession. The blotter gets more blotted. It’s amazing (maddening) that so many NFL players can’t handle fame and fortune.
Stats Slant: Move along there is nothing to see here. Seriously, move along!
Tight End: Mercedes Lewis enters his third season and will be the starting TE in Jacksonville in ‘08. Injuries washed out his rookie season so ‘07 was his first full season. (37 C 391 PYD 3 TD) George Wrighster and Greg Estandia will compete for the back up role.
Stats Slant: This may be getting redundant but again, move along there is nothing to see here. All three of these guys enter preseason hurt or recovering from ‘07 injuries.
Place Kicker: Josh Scobee missed half of the ‘07 season with a quad injury but did return for the last half of the season and hit on 12 of 13 FG and 26 of 27 XP.
Stats Slant: Do we need to say it again?
Defense/Special Teams: Any Jack Del Rio coached team is going to garner respect and consideration as a top DF/ST. The ‘08 version is no different. They loaded up in the ‘08 NFL Draft by trading up to get DE Derrick Harvey out of Florida 8th overall and then DE/OLB Quentin Groves with their second round pick. The Jags lost their D-Coordinator Mike Smith (Head Coach Falcons) and SS Sammie Knight but this will still be an impressive unit in ‘08.
Stats Slant: Finally a relatively bright light on the Fantasy horizon. They don’t rank in the top four but they are a mid range #1 DF/ST unit. Draft them in the second wave of DF/ST.
Red Flag: This is a ball control, run first and run by committee style of offense. Garrard has the fat new contract. Fred Taylor’s best days are behind him. Alright already, we think you get the point.
Keep a pre-season eye on: How many reps Fred Taylor gets in the preseason. Due to his age, he isn’t going to get worked over. However, if Jones-Drew is getting 90% of the reps, that could spell the end of the line for Freddie and the emergence of Jones-Drew. If that is the case, Jones-Drew will see his over all value rise up somewhat.
Stats Sleeper: The Jaguars concentrated on defense in the draft and made a couple of mediocre free agent moves. At this point, there is nothing pointing to anyone being a sleeper candidate on the Jags roster. We will be watching training camp as well as the preseason and will update you if something, from somewhere, materializes. Don’t hold your breath waiting.
2008 Strength Of Schedule: 15th out of 32
Last word: The Jaguars are a team of unsung hero’s and have that Keep Chopping Wood mantra/mentality. We respect their Organization and Head Coach but find it difficult to hitch our wagon to any of their players when it comes to ‘08 Fantasy Football.
Up Next: Kansas City Chiefs On Deck: Miami Dolphins In The Hole: Minnesota Vikings
Photo Source:http://s2nblog.wordpress.com/2007/07/15/mock-draft-2nd-round-16th-pick-overall/