Indianapolis Colts 08-09 Season Forecast
Not many teams have provided more Fantasy Studs over the past decade than the Colts. Not only that, they have produced them from each and every offensive category. Will ‘08 provide more of the same? Let’s have a closer look at this Fantasy Stud machine.
Coaching: The Colts have one of the finest front office and coaching staffs in the entire league. It starts with their Owner and CEO Jim Irsay, funnels down through their President Bob Polian and filters through their entire coaching staff starting with Tony Dungy. These guys know how to win! Dungy enters his seventh season as Head Coach of the Colts and has compiled a 73-23 regular season record. The Colts current streak of five years with at least 12 wins is an NFL record. Tom Moore enters his 11th season as the Colts Offensive Coordinator and 31st season in the NFL. The offensive production the Colts put out year in and year out prove his worth. Ron Meeks enters his seventh season as the Colts Defensive Coordinator. Last season the Colts lead the entire league in scoring defense, which is a largely ignored stat because they have such a prolific offense. Teams get so far behind they get desperate and the Colts pick cherries. If Meeks can turn this D into a powerhouse this would be one scary team.
Stats Slant: It doesn’t get more solid or impressive than this.
Quarterback: Peyton Manning begins his 11th season as the Colts starting QB. Over the past ten years no QB has matched the Fantasy numbers produced by Manning (41,626 PY 306 PTD 153 INT 16 RTD). This is one of those guys that we could go on and on about but everyone knows how good he is.
Stats Slant: Payton Manning will be the top third or fourth QB off the board in virtually every Fantasy Draft in any format. When you draft Manning you get to sit back, relax and enjoy.
Running Back: Joseph Addai enters his third season as the Colts starting RB. It’s hard to ignore any RB that starts for the Colts and Addai had a very solid season in ‘07 (1,072 RYD 7 TD 41 C 364 PYD 3TD). RB’s are very active in the Colts offense and that tradition continues with Addai. Dominic Rhodes returns to Indy as a backup to Addai after a very disappointing season with the Raiders. It’s a good fit for him and it makes him the automatic handcuff to Addai.
Stats Slant: Addai is a #1 RB and an automatic, low-end first round selection across the board. This is another case, much like in Dallas, where an owner would be very happy with the 12th pick and could possibly land a QB/RB monster. That would set the table for a very enjoyable Draft Day.
Wide Receiver: Reggie Wayne took over as the Colts #1 receiver after Marvin Harrison suffered a severe knee injury and did not disappoint his Fantasy owners (104 C 1,510 PYD 10 TD). We expect similar numbers in ‘08 making Wayne a top five WR in all formats. After eight seasons as a Fantasy Stud, (1,100+ PYD 10+ TD) injuries and age have started catching up to Marvelous Marvin Harrison. He played in just 5 games in ‘07 and was a non-factor for the first time in his career. Anthony Gonzalez filled in admirably for Harrison in his rookie season (37 C 576 PYD 3 TD). Two of the TD’s came in the same game in Week 14 though and he was slowed by a foot injury late in the season.
Stats Slant: Select Wayne as a #1 WR late in the second round. Watch both Harrison and Gonzalez in the preseason to gauge the health of both. It’s no secret the Colts love to throw the ball so if either or both of these guys are healthy they rate consideration as a low-end #2 or high-end #3 WR.
Tight End: The beat goes on when it comes to the Colts starters on offense. In his fifth season in the NFL, all with the Colts, Dallas Clark had a breakout season in ‘07 (58 C 616 PYD 11 TD). With Ben Utecht out of the picture (Bengals) his numbers should spike in ‘08. Clark does however have a history of being injury prone and has yet to play a full season. Last year was his best year however as he missed just one game due to concussion symptoms.
Stats Slant: Clark plays more like a WR for the Colts who use a very TE friendly system. That’s good enough for us to make him a top seven TE. He should go off the board late in the first run on TE’s somewhere around the start of the sixth round.
Place Kicker: Veteran and perennial top five Fantasy PK Adam Vinatieri enters his 13th NFL season and third with the Colts. ‘07 was a bit of a down year for Vini, partly because the Colts score so many touchdowns and partly due to his six missed field goal attempts (29 FGA 23 FGM 51 XPA 49 XPM).
Stats Slant: Despite the fact that the Colts are a scoring machine, that does not always translate to huge points for their PK. That is evident by the mere 29 attempts Vinatieri had in ‘07 and the 28 he had in ‘06. You should also know that he has not kicked a field goal of over fifty yards since the ‘02 season. Rate him as a top ten #1 kicker who should go off the board in the lower-end of the PK run. Don’t expect lights out numbers however.
Defense/Special Teams: The Colts DF/ST always seems to be a bit of a quandary for Fantasy owners. All the Colts have done for the past eight years is win. One would think the Colts D would have more to do with that than it really does. The Colts D had a decent 22 INT but only 28 sacks and a meager 3 DTD in ‘07. A huge part of the reason for the low sack total was the mid season loss of sack machine DE Dwight Freeney. His recovery appears to be 100% so the sack total will rise and the DTD total can’t get much worse. Additionally, the Colts are average at best on Special Teams.
Stats Slant: The difference between the #5 and #12 D is about 20 points. Consider the Colts a low-end top 12 DF/ST unit. If you miss out on one of the top four, take the Colts DF/ST late in the draft if they fall to you. Just don’t go out of your way to get them.
Red Flag: It’s an intangible but the NFL is a league of copycats. When a team has marked success against another team or player that has been having marked success, the other 30 teams notice. This was the case when teams brought constant pressure against the Patriots and Tom Brady late last season and into the playoffs (more on that when we get to the Pats). Manning was sacked 21 times in ‘07 his most since ‘02 (23). Mind you, six of them came in one game (Week 9 V Chargers) but age and average mobility are going to catch up with Manning eventually. Hey, it can’t be all peaches and cream can it?
Keep a pre-season eye on: The health of Harrison will determine where Gonzalez lines up. If Harrison is healthy he gets the second wide out position and Gonzalez will move to slot. This will have an impact on when and if you should draft with either of these guys.
Stats Sleeper: The Colts return virtually in tact from the ‘07 season. He’s a bit of a non-sleeper in the true sense of the word but keep an eye on Clark. With Utecht moving on, and if he can stay healthy, Dallas Clark could emerge as a top five TE in this high-powered offense. Keep an eye on rookie Jacob Tamee at TE should Clark miss any time. The Colts know how to draft TE’s and used a fourth round pick on Tamee out of Kentucky (127th OA).
2008 Strength Of Schedule: 12th out of 32.
Last word: The Colts are the Colts and will once again be a great source of Fantasy Studs in ‘08. If one of their stars falls to you, select him with confidence and enjoy his production.
Up Next: Jacksonville Jaguars On Deck: Kansas City Chiefs In The Hole: Miami Dolphins
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