Houston Texans 08-09 Season Forecast
On October 6, 1999 the Houston Texans were officially voted into the NFL based a on 29-0 vote by NFL owners and became the 32nd NFL franchise. On September 8, 2002 the Texans stunned the Cowboys with a 19-10 season opening win and became the first team in 41 years to win their expansion debut. Apart from a small handful of players scattered here and there, the Texans had never been a source of Fantasy studs in any format since their inception. That was supposed to change in ‘07 as the Texans made some promising moves that were stunted by injuries. Despite it all the Texans earned their first non-losing season in their brief history by finishing 8-8 in the tough AFC South. The 42 wins by the AFC South teams was the most in any of the eight divisions. Let’s take a closer look at the Texans upcoming, seventh season in the National Football League.
Coaching: Gary Kubiac enters his third season as the Texans Head Coach. In two years Kubiac has led the Texans to a 14-18 record after the team started 18-46 in four seasons under Dom Capers. As a player, Kubiac was a perennial backup QB in Denver to John Elway. His pro coaching career started in San Fran (’94) with one season as a the QB Coach where he guided Steve Young to his best season ever. In the process Young was named the League and SB XXIX MVP and Kubiac earned his first SB ring after three tries as a player. Kubiac left SF with Mike Shanahan and spent the next 11 seasons (’95-’05) as the Broncos offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach. With the Broncos he added two more SB wins to his impressive coaching credentials. Kyle Shanahan (Son of Mike) following a year as WR Coach (’06) and QB Coach (’07) was named the Texans Offensive Coordinator following the departure of Mike Sherman (Head Coach Texas A&M). The pedigree is certainly there and Shanahan is now the youngest coordinator in NFL history. Richard Smith enters his third season as the Defensive Coordinator of the Texans. The Texans boast a pair of All-Pros in MLB DeMeco Ryans and DE Mario Williams and both are getting better as they enter their third season.
Stats Slant: This is a carefully put together, highly offensive minded group of Coaches. They look to continue to improve on the past two promising seasons.
QuarterBack: The David Carr era began on Day One for the Texans and ended following the last game of the ‘06 season. A first round pick in ‘02 Carr never did get over the hump as is evident by his career 59.7 completion percentage and 62 TD against 70 INT. The Texans acquired Matt Schaub in a trade with the Falcons (3/22/07) and was named the starting QB immediately. His first season was marred by knee and shoulder injuries as he ended up starting just 11 games (2,241 PY 9 TD 9 INT) and did not play at all in the final 4 weeks. Sage Rosenfels filled in admirably in Schaub’s absence (9 G 5 GS 1,684 YD 15 TD 12 INT 1 R TD) and actually helped show how explosive the Texans could be on offense with a full compliment of players.
Stats Slant: ‘07 was supposed to be a breakout year for Schaub but injuries (his and Johnson’s) made it a mediocre season at best. All indications have him 100% healthy heading into the ‘08 season. His second full off-season with Kubiac and Shanahan will only help his progression. Consider him a high-end #2 QB and make sure you get Rosenfels has a handcuff.
Running Back: Since the departure of Domanick Williams (Davis) following the ‘05 season the Texans have been in search of a reliable starting RB. ‘06 was RB by committee (Ron Dayne, Wali Lundy and Sam Gado). It was much the same in ‘07 (Dayne, Ahman Green and Darius Walker). Ahman Green was supposed to stabilize the Texans rushing attack in ‘07 but a nagging knee injury caused him to miss ten games including the final seven. The Texans added journeyman free agent RB Chris Brown, Still have Darius Walker who came on late in ‘07 and drafted Steve Slaton (3rd RD 89th OA).
Stats Slant: Green is 31 years old, and Brown wears down easily and has never proven to be a reliable starting RB. If Green is 100% healthy, he may be worth a low-end #3 RB pick but no more. ‘08 looks to be a RB by committee situation in Houston so it may be best to just avoid this all together.
Wide Receiver: All Pro WR Andre Johnson started the season with 14 C 262 YD 3 TD in his first two games and had owners patting themselves on the back for selecting him as a top five receiver. A knee injury turned the celebration into a scrambling situation as Johnson missed the next seven weeks. He did come back to play the last seven weeks and helped those who stuck with him during the Fantasy Playoffs. Johnson ended up posting outstanding numbers for playing in just 9 games (60 C 851 YD 8 TD). His 8 TD’s were 13th amongst WR’s. In his second full season and first as a starter, Kevin Walter made the most out of his opportunity when Johnson went down and had a breakout season (65 C 800 YD 4 TD) and looks locked in to start opposite Johnson. Andre’ Davis had his best season as a pro, (33 C 587 YD 3 TD 968 KORYD 3 TD) has resurrected his career in Houston and will be the 3rd WR and handle kick off returns.
Stats Slant: Despite injury concerns Johnson will be a top ten WR in most drafts and should come off the board early in the third round. Both Walter and Davis will be hard pressed to match their ‘07 totals if Johnson stays healthy. Neither should be considered as anything more than a reserve and only worth a very late round flyer in deeper drafts.
Tight End: Owen Daniels was one of very few Texans to remain healthy throughout the ‘07 season and almost doubled his rookie season output (63 C 768 YD 3 TD). Owens was another player to benefit from Johnson’s injury but he should still be able to match his ‘07 numbers in the upcoming season.
Stats Slant: Daniels finished sixth amongst TE’s in receptions and yards in ‘07. If he can bump up his TD numbers he becomes a top ten TE. If you miss out on the studs, take him as a low-end #1 TE in the middle rounds and expect solid, if not spectacular, production.
Place Kicker: Kris Brown had a solid year for the Texans (29 FGA 25 FGM 57 LG 40 of 40 XPM) and was 5 of 5 on attempts of 50 plus yards. This is another guy who seems to have resurrected his career in Houston. If everyone stays healthy in ‘08, Brown will have a lot of chances to score.
Stats Slant: Brown’s numbers made him a top 15 PK in ‘07. All indications point to an even better ‘08 campaign and Brown should be considered a high-end #2 PK. That being said, he will not go off the board until the end of most drafts.
Defense/Special Teams: This is a DF/ST unit on the rise. The Texans finished the ‘07 season with seven TD (3 DF 4 ST). Their front seven is solid and should get to the QB more regularly this season. The addition of FS Nick Ferguson should be a boost to the secondary. Andre Davis and Jacoby Jones are legitimate TD threats in the return game.
Stats Slant: The Texans DF/ST unit still has a ways to go especially in the secondary but will make an outstanding reserve and bye week replacement unit. They are a mid range #2 DF/ST with a chance to move up slightly and will be a late round selection in most drafts.
Red Flag: Injuries decimated the Texans in ‘07. The health of Schaub and Johnson adds a degree of risk when drafting either of these guys.
Keep a pre-season eye on: How the running back situation shakes out. At this time it does look like an RB by committee situation but if Green is 100% healthy he could move up to a high-end #3 RB.
Stats Sleeper: With games against the Ravens, Dolphins, Lions, Raiders and Bears on the schedule, you should try to get the Texans DF/ST as a late round steal. You probably won’t use them for any other games but in these five they should put up more points than the rest of their games combined.
2008 Strength Of Schedule: 25th out of 32.
Last Word: If the Texans can avoid the injury bug they have players that can make an impact in your Fantasy Football League. Keep an eye on their overall health in training camp and the preseason but draft Texans with caution.
Up Next: Indianapolis Colts On Deck: Jacksonville Jaguars In The Hole: Kansas City Chiefs
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