Green Bay Packers 08-09 Season Forecast
With Brett Favre at QB the Packers have always been a Fantasy relevant team. 2007 was no different as they posted huge offensive numbers again (4th PTS 27.2 2nd YPG 370.7 2nd PY 270.9). February saw the retirement of Favre who left the game with staggering numbers (61,655 PY 442 TD). Now into July, talk has surfaced that Favre wants to come out of retirement. This must drive Packer fans crazy, as they must feel like they are twisting in the wind. For now, Favre is still retired and the Aaron Rodgers era has seemingly begun. There is no definite indication that Favre will be back with the Packers, or that they even want him back, so let’s take a look at the Rodgers led Packers.
Coaching: Mike McCarthy enters his third season as the Packers Head Coach. Widely respected as a great offensive mind McCarthy has mentored a lot of QB’s in his coaching career. The list is impressive and includes Joe Montana, Elvis Grbac, Rich Gannon, Brett Favre, Matt Hasselbeck, Aaron Brooks, Jake Delhomme and Marc Bulger. Between them they have started in eight Super Bowls and garnered 25 Pro Bowl selections. If anyone can make Rodgers a successful starting QB, McCarthy can. Joe Philbin enters his sixth season with the Packers and second as Offensive Coordinator. Very few coaches have had a more rapid ascent in the NFL coaching ranks. Bob Sanders enters fourth season with the Packers and third as the Defensive Coordinator. The Packers were surprisingly strong defensively in ‘07 finishing in the top 14 in all statistical categories.
Stats Slant: The Packers are a young team and so is the coaching staff. They are a solid overall group who know how to teach the pro game.
Quarterback: As mentioned, the close of the ‘07 season saw the retirement of Favre, who was one of the greatest Fantasy QB’s ever. We don’t see him back with the Packers, so the torch has been passed to Aaron Rodgers who was the Packers 1st round (24 OA) pick in the ‘05 NFL Draft. As a two-year starter for the California Golden Bears, Rodgers had a 63.8 completion percentage while throwing for 5469 YD 43 TD and only 13 INT. Having mentored behind Favre for the past three seasons, Rodgers is ready for the bright lights and should have a seamless entry in the starting role.
Stats Slant: Rodgers presents a very intriguing option at QB. A lot of people are wondering what the recent Favre news is doing to him psychologically but he is a very poised individual. Confidently select him as your second QB as he should go off the board high in the second QB run.
Running Back: Ryan Grant was one of the hottest waiver wire pickups across the board last season when he came from out of nowhere and started in Week Seven. That start (19 R 55 Y 2.9 AVG) replacing ineffective rookie DeShawn Wynn, certainly wasn’t a sign of things to come (9 GS 956 Y 5.1 AVG 8 RTD 30 C 145 PY). He was a bit up and down though, rushing for under 100 yards one week and over 100 yards over twelve consecutive weeks. A lasting very good memory of Grants ‘07 season came when he rushed for 201 Y and 3 TD in the NFC Wildcard Game VS the Seahawks. A lasting, but not very good memory, came in the NFC Championship game when he rushed for 29 Y on 13 carries. Grant is an ERFA and should have a new deal in place within the next week or so. Brandon Jackson, Deshawn Wynn, Noah Herron and Vernand Morency will battle for the backup roll, and who gets it is anyone’s guess at this time. If Jackson’s pass blocking has improved, he will get the nod.
Stats Slant: Until Rodgers proves he’s a passing threat, Grant will face a lot of 8 man fronts which is something that didn’t happen a lot with Favre at the helm. That could lower his rushing totals but should add more to his reception totals. Grant is a top #2 RB and will go off the board early in the second round.
Wide Receiver: The Packer wide receivers take the biggest hit with the retirement of Favre. Greg Jennings enters his third season and has taken the #1 WR ranking from Donald Driver after he excelled in ‘07 (13 GP 53 C 920 YD 12 TD) He is a homerun threat each time he touches the ball. Driver has always rewarded his owners with a ton of catches and ‘07 was no different (15 GP 82 C 1048 YD 2 TD). James Jones and rookie Jordy Nelson will battle for the #3 WR spot.
Stats Slant: We see both Jennings and Driver having similar seasons in ‘08 as they did in ‘07. The QB change will be an initial concern but we expect Rodgers to show his metal in preseason and all should be right in Packer land. Jennings is a mid range #2 WR and Driver a mid range #3 WR.
Tight End: Donald Lee had a solid year in his third season with the Packers and fifth overall. So solid in fact that he scored more fantasy points in ‘07 than the previous 4 years combined (15 GP 48 C 575 YD 6 TD). Lee is the unchallenged and undisputed starter for the Packers at TE.
Stats Slant: Lee will definitely be a safety valve for Rodgers so we expect a modest spike in his ‘08 totals. As is the case with the Packers WR’s you have to be an optimist to take Lee as a starting TE. He is however a solid #2 TE and will make a good backup or bye week replacement.
Place Kicker: Mason Crosby had as good a rookie season as it gets. His 31 FG tied him for second and he was good on all 38 XPA. This kid will be around the league for a long time to come. Accuracy was a bit of a problem in ‘07 though as he did miss eight times with five of those coming in the 40-49 Y range. With a great year under his belt his confidence level should be sky high.
Stats Slant: The sophomore jinx seems to affect the PK position more than any other. If Rodgers can move the ball, we don’t see it happening with Crosby. He will be hard pressed to equal his ‘07 numbers but should still be considered as a low-end #1 PK. If you missed out on a more elite, veteran PK in the first run of kickers, get this guy in the second wave.
Defense/Special Teams: The Packers are getting a little long in the tooth on defense and will have to make up for the loss of Corey Williams to the Browns. LB’s Nick Barnett and A.J. Hawk excel at their position. Al Harris and Charles Woodson are aging but can still makes plays out on the corners. The Packers finished ‘07 ranked seventh in DTD with six.
Stats Slant: There are more elite DF/ST units out there but consider the Packers unit as a high end #2 and remember that they will play the Bears twice.
Red Flag: The whole Favre deal and Rodgers being a first year starting QB muddies the situation in GB for the first time in a decade and a half. Rodgers has to be wondering what is going on as he will also have to deal with QB Brian Brohm, who the Packers selected with the 25th pick (56 OA) in the second round of the ‘08 NFL Draft.
Keep a pre-season eye on: Rodgers confidence and leadership skills.
Stats Sleeper: Rookie WR Jordy Nelson (RD 2 5th pick 36 OA) doesn’t have blazing speed but is as tough as they come and should bulk up on his 6-3/217 size. He could put up decent numbers if he lands the #3 WR status in GB. He will also see time as a return man on Special Teams.
2008 Strength Of Schedule: 10th out of 32
Last word: The Packers will be an interesting watch in training camp and during the preseason. As of right now, we are confident that Rodgers can carry the load for the Packers and as a #2 Fantasy QB. We see this group as having lots of #2 positional status across the board.
Up Next: Houston Texans On Deck: Indianapolis Colts In The Hole: Jacksonville Jaguars
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