Detroit Lions 08-09 Season Forecast
There are NFL owners like Robert Kraft (NE) Pat Bowlen (DEN) Jim Irsay (IND) Dan Rooney (PIT) and then there’s the Ford Family. The Lions are widely known as the worst ownership group in all of football. Long suffering Lions fans can certainly attest to that. This is more than evident by the fact that Matt Millen is still the team’s President and CEO despite being 31-81 during his seven-year tenure. Each year a handful of players show promise of being fantasy stars but in reality the Lions have had very few since the days of Barry Sanders and Herman Moore. Will ‘08 be any different? Let’s take a look at the Lions.
Coaching: Hard nosed, no nonsense and discipline preaching Rod Marinelli begins his third season as head coach of the Lions. The 6-2 start in ‘07 was their best since the ‘99 season and has given Lions fans reason for optimism. Marinelli knows how to win and was the Assistant. Head Coach/Defensive Line for the SB XXXVII winning Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Mike Martz left the Lions for San Fran and Jim Colletto was promoted to Offensive Coordinator after a year being named the Lions Offensive Line Coach. Colletto was big part of the Ravens SB XXXV Championship team as their Offensive Line Coach. Colletto’s O-Line helped Jamal Lewis rush for the second best rushing total in league history (2006). Joe Barry starts his second season with the Lions as Defensive Coordinator. In his first season the Lions D-Unit tied for the third most takeaways (35) in the league. The defense also was tied for ninth in the NFL in sacks (37) and scored four touchdowns.
Stats Slant: There is a lot of experience and a history of winning in this group. It looks to be solid heading in the ‘08 season.
Quarterback: Jon Kitna begins his 10th season and third as the undisputed starter in Detroit. ‘07 was supposed to be a breakout year for Kitna as he was projected as a top 10 QB on most draft boards. It ended up being a mixed bag as Kitna was very inconsistent and way to loose with the ball. (16 G 4,068 YD 18 TD 20 INT 6 FL). The turnovers must have driven owners crazy. Kitna hit rock bottom in Week 15 when he threw 5 INT against the ball hawking Chargers.
Stats Slant: Kitna will have a lot of weapons at his disposal again in ‘08. That being said, the Mike Martz bombs away style offense has been replaced by Colletto’s one-cut zone running scheme offense. Kitna’s attempts will be down from the ‘07 season (588) as the Lions operate a more ball control offense. This could actually help Kitna put up better numbers. Kitna is a low end #2 QB and an adequate bye week replacement.
Running Back: The Kevin Jones injury filled experience is over in Detroit. The Lions resigned Tatum Bell in the off season which is another confusing move by Millen considering Bell has been a bust in Detroit. Enter RB Kevin Smith who Lions selected with the 64th overall pick in the 2008 NFL Draft. The Lions passed on both Felix Jones (DAL) and Rashard Mendenhall (PIT) so they must like this kid. Smith led NCAA rushers as a junior and finished the season 61 yards short of Barry Sanders’ NCAA record of 2,628. His 450 rushing attempts in his final year at Central Florida shows that he’s a workhorse but also is a cause for concern. Brian Calhoun (another Millen bust) is also in the mix here.
Stats Slant: The Lions like Smith and he excelled in the same rushing scheme they will use this season while he was at UCF. Mind you, he did his rushing against a lot of inferior opponents in the C-USA division. He will be the starter in Week One and being as most people don’t pay much attention to the Lions, he is going to be a great sleeper pick. Until we see him in pads we rate him as a low-end #3 RB with a chance to move up much higher come Draft Day. Bell should be considered the handcuff at this point.
Wide Receiver: Millen was the laughing stock of most GM’s when he drafted a WR with the first pick in the 2003-05 drafts (Charles Rogers, Roy Williams, and Mike Williams) Of the three, Roy Williams (13 GS 64 C 838 YD 5 TD) was the only one who has panned out, but the Lions have since added Calvin Johnson (48 C 756 YD 4 TD 4 RA 52 YD 1 TD 1 FL) to compliment him. There were a lot of trade rumors circulating around Williams but nothing materialized. He is in the final year of his current contract and would love to have a huge season. He did attend mini camp and showed no lasting effects of the PCL he tore in Week 13 last year. Shaun McDonald and Mike Furrey are decent slot/possession receivers but the Lions have switched to a more basic two-receiver offense and that will cut into their playing time. Both are nothing more than bye week replacements
Stats Slant: The Lions offense will be more conservative in ‘08 so both Williams and Johnson have seen their stock dip some. Both of them are big play guys though and should be considered as mid to low end #2 WR’s.
Tight End: Dan Campbell appears 100% after off-season elbow surgery and will be the Lions starting TE in ‘08. The Lions however are planning on using more two TE sets this season and Micheal Gaines will be the second.
Stats Slant: Lions TE’s block and therefore offer no fantasy value. Move along.
Place Kicker: Jason Hansen enters his 17th season as the Lions PK. How he has endured all the losing seasons is beyond us. In ‘07 Hanson finished fifth in FG’s made (29 of 35 FG and 35 of 36 XP)
Stats Slant: Age and the Lions more conservative approach on offense should push Hanson’s numbers down even though he will be a UFA in ‘09. He is a high-end #2 PK and will go off the board during the second run on kickers.
Defense/Special Teams: Year in and year out the Lions seem to have amazing defensive games at certain points throughout the year. Predicting when they will come is impossible and makes this a frustrating group to have on your fantasy team. We expect ‘08 will be no different. The Lions did lose DT Shaun Rogers but added ball hawking CB Leigh Bodden to anchor the secondary.
Stats Slant: There are much better options out there and the Lions DF/ST should be considered no higher than a low end #2 unit and a bye week replacement if the match up is right.
Red Flag: The Ford Family still owns the team and Matt Millen is still the team’s President and CEO. Enough said!
Keep a pre-season eye on: Kevin Smith and the Lions new offensive packages under Colletto.
Stats Sleeper: Kevin Smith
2008 Strength Of Schedule: 23rd of 32
Last word: StatsGuru is a life long (suffering) Lions fan. Always has been, always will be. When it comes to Fantasy Football though, owners have to put their allegiances behind them and draft the best possible players. We think both Williams and Johnson will be great value picks and Smith should be the top sleeper in most drafts. Fire Millen!
Up Next: Green Bay Packers On Deck: Houston Texans In The Hole: Indianapolis Colts
Photo Source:http://www.mlive.com/lions/index.ssf/2007/12/09/